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NHL
Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets
Jets
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Detroit Red Wings
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +28.5% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings -1.5
"Sharp money loves the under (12.8% edge, RLM) but totals are our worst market; the only +EV is Detroit +1.5 at +235 but it's a low-probability bet."
EV / $100
+34.2
Win Prob
54%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Winnipeg Jets None
55%
TOTAL under 5.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 11.6% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$108642 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 36 trades Kalshi: 14 trades Largest: $24576

Player Props Engine

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Winnipeg Jets

Detroit Red Wings

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -108 / -112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -104 / -108 -
Value Line - -112 / -107 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-575) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-278) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -258 / 258 102 / -102 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Winnipeg Jets

C
Connor Hellebuyck
(G) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
G
Garrett Brown
(C) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
W
Walker Duehr
(RW) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve
E
Elias Salomonsson
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-nr
Injured Reserve

Detroit Red Wings

M
Marco Kasper
(C) out — out
Out
D
Dylan Larkin
(C) Injured Reserve — Larkin (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Friday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
S
Simon Edvinsson
(D) out — Edvinsson, who is a restricted free agent, has returned to Sweden to resume his training, per Andreas III Johnsson of Goteborgs-Posten on Wednesday.
Out
C
Chase Stillman
(RW) Injured Reserve — Stillman (undisclosed) was moved to the injured non-roster list Monday.
Injured Reserve
C
Carter Bear
(LW) Injured Reserve — Bear (upper body) was placed on the injured non-roster list Monday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jacob Bernard-Docker
(D) Injured Reserve — The Red Wings placed Bernard-Docker (upper body) on injured reserve Monday, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Winnipeg Jets @ Detroit Red Wings
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-575)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Connor Hellebuyck Injured Reserve
Garrett Brown Injured Reserve
Marco Kasper Out
Dylan Larkin Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Winnipeg Jets 1.5 (-290) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T02:48:54.073947 UTC

Market Consensus de-vigged spread fair value gives Winnipeg 72.3% to cover +1.5; at -290 the breakeven is 74.4%, so the edge is small but positive on a puck-line lottery ticket.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T04:33:19.617896 UTC

Kyle Connor is the Jets' clear top-line sniper and leads the team in scoring. With Hellebuyck out, Winnipeg will rely on outscoring Detroit; Connor is the most likely Jet to find the net. Confidence capped at 60 due to unvalidated roster and preseason variability.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Winnipeg Jets @ Detroit Red Wings

+34.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Red Wings 55% Lean
"Sharp money loves the under (12.8% edge, RLM) but totals are our worst market; the only +EV is Detroit +1.5 at +235 but it's a low-probability bet."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 54%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Detroit Red Wings -115 / Winnipeg Jets -105
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Both teams missing key players: Hellebuyck (WPG) and Larkin (DET) on IR. Net injury impact roughly equal.
FULL ANALYSIS
This is a coin-flip game with both teams missing their best players (Hellebuyck for WPG, Larkin for DET). The market is efficient on the moneyline. The only real edge is on the spread where Detroit +1.5 at +235 offers massive +EV vs fair value, but the probability of covering a 1.5-goal spread in a tight game is low. The under 5.5 has a sharp signal with RLM, but totals are this model's weakest market. Pass on the ML, small lean to the under, and a speculative dart on the Detroit spread.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on moneyline is 1.1% favoring the away side (Winnipeg). No RLM, but a moderate signal.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Red Wings -1.5
+34.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Winnipeg Jets None
55%
TOTAL under 5.5
+2.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Winnipeg Jets -105
  • Sharp money has a 1.1% edge on the away side
  • No other signals confirm
  • No positive EV
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Detroit Red Wings -1.5
  • +EV analysis shows Detroit +1.5 at +235 has +34.2% EV vs Market Consensus fair value of 27.7%
  • Sharp money also favors home side on the spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
UNDER 5.5
  • Sharp edge on the total is 12.8% toward under with RLM detected
  • +EV analysis shows Market Consensus fair value at 52.2% under
  • Strong sharp signal
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Hellebuyck suspension tilts goaltending edge to Detroit; Red Wings moneyline at -115 offers +0.96 EV per $100.
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