NCAA Football
Sam Houston Bearkats
Bearkats
Liberty Flames
Flames
Whale Activity Detected
$13253 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Kalshi: 66 trades
Largest: $2507
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASam Houston Bearkats
Liberty Flames
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
7.9
Moneyline
LIB -311
/
SAM 311
Win Probability
76%
-
24%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Sam Houston Bearkats @ Liberty Flames
+10.73 EV
per $100 wagered
Liberty Flames
58%
Lean
"Liberty -13.5 and under 52.5 show speculative edge, but no quantitative models available — low confidence plays only."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
52%
Edge
+5.6%
Line Movement
Current
Liberty -13.5, Total 52.5
Movement
No movement data available
Positive EV on Liberty -13.5 based on our estimated 58% cover rate vs market's 52.4% implied probability. However, confidence is low due to lack of quantitative models.
FULL ANALYSIS
Limited data on this CUSA matchup. Liberty is a heavy home favorite (-550 ML, -13.5 spread) but the juice makes the ML unplayable. The spread and total offer marginal edges based on qualitative factors, but without model validation, confidence is capped at 58. The under 52.5 gets a slight lean due to Liberty's strong defense and Sam Houston's offensive limitations. Proceed with caution.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
50%
Sam Houston Bearkats 410
- Underdog +410 offers value if Sam Houston wins >19.6% of the time; our estimate is 20%, yielding marginal +EV
- However, confidence is too low to recommend
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Liberty Flames -13.5
- Market de-vigged spread probability 52.4% vs our estimate 58% based on Liberty's home dominance and Sam Houston's road struggles
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 52.5
- Market under implied probability 51.0% vs our estimate 58% based on Liberty's defensive efficiency and Sam Houston's low-scoring offense
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Liberty -13.5 and under 52.5 are display-only leans; -550 ML is a PASS with no validated edge
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