Home › MLB › Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
MLB
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
Royals
2 - 4
Final
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
70% Strong
70% Strong
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 1.5
"Royals +159 ML: 46% model prob vs 34% implied (+18 EV), extreme whales + Yankees missing ace duo"
EV / $100
+8.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
72%
TOTAL over 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +193.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
31.3%
ML
220 / -220

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -183 / 151 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -173 / 158 -
Value Line - -180 / 143 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (119) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 126 / -126 -166 / 166 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — Kansas City placed India on the 10-day injured list Monday due to a left shoulder subluxation.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter allowed a hit and no walks with three strikeouts across two scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
S
Stephen Kolek
(SP) 15-day IL — Kolek (oblique) allowed two runs on four hits and a walk over 4.1 innings with Triple-A Omaha on Sunday. He struck out four.
15-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said Tuesday on 96.5 The Fan that he's hopeful Estevez (foot) will be ready to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Omaha within the next five days.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) surrendered three earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out three batters over 4.1 innings Friday for Double-A Somerset in the first start of his rehab assignment.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Rodon (elbow/hamstring) will likely begin a rehab assignment following Saturday's live batting practice session, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Volpe (shoulder) is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Kansas City Royals
Royals
2
-
New York Yankees
Yankees
4
Kansas City Royals 1.5
70% conf
L

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

+8.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Royals 70% Strong Calibrated
"Royals +159 ML: 46% model prob vs 34% implied (+18 EV), extreme whales + Yankees missing ace duo"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: NYY -193 / KC +159 | Total: 8.5 | Run Line: N/A (est. NYY -1.5)
Movement No significant movement
+18.1 EV on Royals ML +159 (breakeven 38.6%, our 46% exceeds by 7.4%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in STRONG tier (54%); totals losing across board
FULL ANALYSIS
Royals +159 ML crushed by Bayesian -11.4% edge (46% our prob vs 34% implied) + extreme $332k whales (institutional away); omega even spread (0.0) vs NYY -193 juice screams value. Yankees pitchers Cole/Rodon out (-11% impact) > Royals bullpen dings. MC 46.4% NYY win aligns, high edge conf despite VERY_LOW agreement.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($332k, 42 wallets, 72% on Royals); institutional signal overrides Kalshi 59% NYY
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Royals 1.5
+8.4 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
+18.1 EV 72% 2.0u
TOTAL over 8.5
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 72%
Kansas City Royals 159
  • Bayesian posterior 46% Royals win vs market 34.1% implied; -11.4% model edge + extreme whales
SPREAD PICK
● 70%
Kansas City Royals 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market heavy NYY favoritism; MC projects 10.5-10.4 (Royals cover +1.5 in 65%+ sims)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 + MC projected 21 vs market 8.5; massive model discrepancy
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees +200 model ML +59 EV (53% our prob vs 33% implied); MC 74% under 24.0
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

PULSE · LIVE