WNBA
New York Liberty
Liberty
Las Vegas Aces
Aces
Whale Activity Detected
$48909 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 42 trades
Largest: $4961
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: -1.0
Total
179.0
Edge: +6.5
Win Prob
58.2%
ML
-139 / 139
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANew York Liberty
Las Vegas Aces
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
3.6
Moneyline
LAS -168
/
NEW 168
Win Probability
63%
-
37%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Liberty
54%
Lean
"Over 172.5: OMEGA projects 179.0 total — 6.5-point gap vs market, +5.2 EV per $100 despite Aces' injury concerns"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
56%
Edge
+1.7%
Line Movement
Current
Home -1.5 / Total 172.5 / ML Home -130
Movement
No significant movement detected
Aces missing three rotation players (Carter, Barker, Evans) — net -20.7% offensive impact
Liberty fully healthy — rest advantage vs depleted Aces
No travel or schedule spot edge — both teams on normal rest
calibrated shows +1.7pp edge on Aces ML. With -130 odds, breakeven is 56.5% and our confidence of 58.2% clears the threshold by 1.7pp, yielding +$4.10 EV per $100 wagered.
FULL ANALYSIS
Aces host Liberty with three rotation players out (Carter, Barker, Evans) — a -20.7% offensive hit that the market hasn't fully adjusted for. OMEGA independent total of 179.0 vs market 172.5 signals the over is undervalued by 6.5 points, though Aces' depleted offense could suppress scoring. Bayesian fusion gives Aces a 58.2% win probability (+1.7pp edge on -130 ML), but the spread edge favors Liberty (+1.5 at -105) with a 54.1% cover probability. Whale volume ($48.9K) leans away, adding a contrarian signal. The over is the strongest play given the total gap, but injury risk makes it a lean rather than a lock.
SHARP MONEY
Whale volume ($48,909) leans away (54% confidence, 23 wallets). No sharp book data to confirm, but whale signal is moderate-strong. Bayesian fusion still favors home, so sharp signal is contrarian to model.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Las Vegas Aces -130
- Bayesian fusion posterior 58.2% vs market 56.5% — +1.7pp edge; Aces home court and A'ja Wilson's star power outweigh injury losses in model
SPREAD PICK
○
54%
New York Liberty 1.5
- Aces missing 3 rotation players (-20.7% offensive impact) while Liberty fully healthy; Bayesian spread posterior shows 54.1% cover probability vs market 50%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 172.5
- OMEGA independent total 179.0 vs market 172.5 — 6.5-point gap; Bayesian total posterior shows 52.7% under but model projects higher scoring; pace and efficiency favor over
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Liberty +1.5 catches a banged-up Aces squad missing three key players — +4.1pp Bayesian edge with $48K whale volume confirming the side.
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