Home › NBA › Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
NBA
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics
Celtics
108 - 97
Final
Orlando Magic
Magic
Orlando Magic
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK EARLY VALUE
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Celtics Boston Celtics -7.5
"Market charges Magic -7.5 with Banchero+Suggs+Isaac all out; OMEGA projects Boston by 15 — Celtics -7.5 carries ~+9.4 EV/100."
EV / $100
+9.4
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+9.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
58%
TOTAL over 221.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
15.0
Edge: +7.5
Total
237.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
18.4%
ML
444 / -444

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Boston Celtics

Orlando Magic

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 230 / -280 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 227 / -261 -
Value Line - 1150 / -3335 -
Sharp Action Best Line 7.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus 7.0 (-103) ↓ - -
Value Line 7.5 (-107) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 222.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 222.5 (-110)
Value Line - - Over 213.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 102 / -102 247 / -247 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Celtics

M
Mitchell Robinson
(C) out — Robinson (rest) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Magic.
Out
D
Devin Carter
(G) out — Carter has been diagnosed with mononucleosis and is without a timetable for a return, Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe reports.
Out

Orlando Magic

J
Jonathan Isaac
(F) out — Isaac (knee) is out for Friday's game in Toronto.
Out
J
Jalen Suggs
(G) out — Suggs has been diagnosed with a mild bone bruise in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
P
Paolo Banchero
(F) out — Banchero is expected to be sidelined for the next four-to-six weeks due to a right high-ankle sprain, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
N
Noah Penda
(F) out — Penda was diagnosed with a partially torn right hamstring Saturday, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Out
I
Izaiyah Nelson
(F) out — Team president Jeff Weltman said Monday that Nelson (ankle) remains about a month away from returning to the court after offseason surgery, per Philip Rossman-Reich of OrlandoMagicDaily.com.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
Boston Celtics
Celtics
108
-
Orlando Magic
Magic
97
Boston Celtics -7.5
61% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Boston Celtics -7.5 (-112) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T00:37:36.146973 UTC

Market is only 7.5 while OMEGA projects ~15 for Boston with Banchero/Suggs/Isaac out — a +7.5 model-market gap on a depleted home favorite.

Moneyline: Boston Celtics (-298) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T00:37:36.110223 UTC

Model gives Boston ~81.6% win probability (OMEGA 18.4% home) vs a -298 breakeven of 74.9%, a ~6.7pp edge.

Total: over 221.5 (-115) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T15:21:14.139633 UTC

OMEGA total is 237.0 (+15.5 vs market 221.5); decomposed ratings also project 240.3 — market total appears stale given both models' expected scores (111.2-126.0).

Player Prop: over (-110) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T00:37:36.205546 UTC

Per supply data, Tatum is Boston's primary usage engine; projected role remains highest on roster given listed starters, supportive of a 27+ point baseline.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic

+9.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Celtics 61% Lean
"Market charges Magic -7.5 with Banchero+Suggs+Isaac all out; OMEGA projects Boston by 15 — Celtics -7.5 carries ~+9.4 EV/100."
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 53%
Edge +9.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Magic -7.5 (-108 home / -112 away) | Total 221.5 | ML Magic 240 / Celtics -298
Movement No movement data provided
Orlando: Banchero (30%+ usage), Suggs, Isaac, Penda, Nelson all OUT — extreme injury cascade Boston: Robinson, Carter OUT — rotation depth hit but stars intact Magic 0-2 at home; Celtics 4-1 overall
Model spread edge of ~15 vs market 7.5 gives Boston -7.5 a de-vigged cover probability near 62% vs 52.8% implied at -112 (+9.4 EV/100). Confidence tempered to 61 for display-tier calibration and single-game model variance.
FULL ANALYSIS
Orlando is favored by 7.5 missing Banchero, Suggs, and Isaac — OMEGA's Poisson+ELO stack projects Boston by 15 with a 126-111 expected score, a 7.5-point gap the books haven't repriced. NegBin (17.8% home win) and both reviews confirm the away side. The actionable spot is Boston -7.5 at -112; ML at -298 (74.9% breakeven) and total over 221.5 are lower-tier expressions with real but smaller edges.
SHARP MONEY
No split-bet data supplied; signal is inferred from a 7.5-point gap between OMEGA line (-15) and market (-7.5) against an injury-depleted home favorite — books shaded toward the public home team while the quantitative stack (NegBin 17.8% home win prob, expected 112.7-127.7) points strongly away.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Celtics -7.5
+9.4 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
+0.6 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 221.5
+4.3 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Boston Celtics -298
  • Model gives Boston ~81.6% win probability (OMEGA 18.4% home) vs a -298 breakeven of 74.9%, a ~6.7pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Boston Celtics -7.5
  • Market is only 7.5 while OMEGA projects ~15 for Boston with Banchero/Suggs/Isaac out — a +7.5 model-market gap on a depleted home favorite
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 221.5
  • OMEGA total is 237.0 (+15.5 vs market 221.5); decomposed ratings also project 240.3 — market total appears stale given both models' expected scores (111.2-126.0)
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Display-only analysis: model has Boston 3.1 ppg better on neutral court before the venue discount — no bet recommended since market pricing is missing entirely.
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