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Mixed Martial Arts
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Amosov
Joel Álvarez
Álvarez
Joel Álvarez
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Yaroslav Amosov Yaroslav Amosov +0.5
"Amosov ML +0.5u off $7k whale steam (90% conf, moderate vol) in 50/50 model (+1.2 EV)"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Yaroslav Amosov None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$7247 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (89% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 3 trades Largest: $3590

Player Props Engine

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Yaroslav Amosov

Joel Álvarez

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
JOE -100 / YAR -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Game Preview
Yaroslav Amosov @ Joel Álvarez
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Yaroslav Amosov @ Joel Álvarez

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Yaroslav Amosov 55% Lean
"Amosov ML +0.5u off $7k whale steam (90% conf, moderate vol) in 50/50 model (+1.2 EV)"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model ML: Yaroslav Amosov -115 / Joel Álvarez +105 | Spread: Joel Álvarez -0.5 (-110) / Yaroslav Amosov +0.5 (-110) | Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No movement (pre-open)
Slight +EV on Amosov side after whale adjustment vs model even prior
FULL ANALYSIS
No market odds or models available; OMEGA generates lines from even Bayesian posterior adjusted +3pp to Amosov on $7k moderate whale volume (90% conf, 3 wallets). MMA style matchup gives Amosov wrestling edge vs Alvarez reach/sub threat, but poor data (24% quality) caps at leans. Totals at 2.5 rounds lean under on historical ~52% hit rate for 3-round prelims.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume $7,247 from 3 profitable wallets (90% confidence on Amosov)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Yaroslav Amosov +0.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Yaroslav Amosov None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.0 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Yaroslav Amosov -110
  • Moderate whale volume on Amosov (90% conviction, $7k from profitable wallets)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Yaroslav Amosov 0.5
  • Whale signals ($7k vol, 90% conf) back Amosov in model pick'em spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Historical MMA under 2.5 hits 52% in 3-rounders; no pace data but default lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Amosov ML (-110 model) +1.2 EV on $7k moderate whale steam (90% conviction) in pick'em grappler vs striker
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