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Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
San Francisco Giants
Giants
San Francisco Giants
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants None
"Under 22.5 at 69.9% MC confidence — LEAN totals have hit 68.4% in last 30 days, and Monte Carlo edge is HIGH despite missing pitcher data"
EV / $100
+5.8
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 0.0
55%
TOTAL under 22.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$395030 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 98 trades Kalshi: 139 trades Largest: $100978
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
22.5
Win Prob
41.7%
ML
140 / -140

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

San Francisco Giants

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -116 / 105 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (172) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value 186 / -186 -110 / 110 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

L
Luis Severino
(SP) 60-day IL — The Athletics transferred Severino (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mark Leiter Jr.
(RP) 15-day IL — The Athletics placed Leiter on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right hip impingement, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Wei-En Lin
(P) out — Lin (quadriceps) has allowed three earned runs on four hits and four walks while striking out eight batters over 10.1 innings in two starts for Double-A Midland since being reinstated from the 7-day injured list May 20.
Out
B
Brooks Kriske
(RP) 60-day IL — Kriske (shoulder) began a throwing progression Thursday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brent Rooker
(DH) 10-day IL — The Athletics placed Rooker on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Tuesday, due to a bone bruise in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 60-day IL — Clarke (hamstring) will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) will be sidelined for the rest of the 2026 season after undergoing surgery on his left hip Monday.
60-Day-IL

San Francisco Giants

T
Tyler Mahle
(SP) 15-day IL — Giants manager Tony Vitello said Friday that Mahle (hamstring) will rejoin the rotation Wednesday against the Athletics, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Heliot Ramos
(LF) 10-day IL — Ramos (quadriceps) went 1-for-5 with a walk and a run scored in Triple-A Sacramento's 9-6 win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) struck out two over a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader met with Dr. Robert Anderson on June 5 and received a stem-cell injection to address plantar fasciitis in his left foot, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Keaton Winn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Winn on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to a right elbow strain.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Peguero on the 60-day injured list Monday due to a left hamstring strain, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (172)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Luis Severino 60-Day-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. 15-Day-IL
Tyler Mahle 15-Day-IL
Heliot Ramos 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

+5.8 EV
per $100 wagered
San Francisco Giants 58% Lean
"Under 22.5 at 69.9% MC confidence — LEAN totals have hit 68.4% in last 30 days, and Monte Carlo edge is HIGH despite missing pitcher data"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +3.0%
Line Movement
Open N/A (model-generated)
Current N/A (model-generated)
Movement No market data available
Away more affected by injuries (-10.1% vs -6.9% home) — net +3.2% home advantage Model agreement VERY_LOW — ELO dominates scoring model, regression risk Whale signals contradict model direction — extreme volume ($305K) on away side
At +140 moneyline, a 54.5% win probability yields +5.8% EV per $100. calibrated edge of +3.0pp over market prior confirms value on home side despite whale money on away.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives home a +3.0pp edge (54.5% posterior vs 51.5% market prior), supported by injury advantage (+3.2% net home). But whale signals are extreme on away ($305K volume, 78% confidence) — this is a genuine contrarian signal that demands respect. Monte Carlo simulation strongly favors under (69.9% at 22.5), which aligns with historical MLB total profitability at this tier. Without pitcher data, all picks are capped at LEAN. The under is the strongest signal here — MC edge confidence is HIGH and LEAN totals have been profitable (68.4% last 30 days).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
+5.8 EV 58% 0.5u
SPREAD San Francisco Giants 0.0
+2.5 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 22.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
San Francisco Giants 140
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 54.5% vs market prior 51.5% yields +3.0pp edge; injury impact favors home by +3.2%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
San Francisco Giants 0.0
  • Model projects a near-pick-em game; home injury advantage (+3.2%) and Bayesian edge (+3.0pp) suggest slight home edge at PK
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 22.5
  • Monte Carlo simulation shows under 69.9% at 22.5 — strong signal despite model total of 22.5; edge confidence HIGH
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 22.5: Monte Carlo 70.5% under, both teams missing key bats (Rooker, Ramos, Bader), +4.5 EV per $100
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