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Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays
"Under 7.5 best edge (+2.1 EV) early season low totals + 0.00 ERA arms; Rays ML fade after H2H loss"
EV / $100
-1.2
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
59%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Tampa Bay Rays

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -108 / -100 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-191) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (106)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 15-day IL — Pepiot (hip) is set to resume a throwing program this weekend, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 15-day IL — Uceta (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Saturday, John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — The Rays placed Lux on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder impingement.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Walls
(SS) 10-day IL — Walls received a cortisone injection in his right oblique and is expected to be sideline at least 3-to-4 weeks, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Martinez
(SP) day-to-day — Martinez finished Grapefruit League play with a 14.49 ERA and 7:6 K:BB over 13.2 innings.
Day-To-Day
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) out — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Out
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ricardo Genoves
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — The Cardinals placed Dobbins (knee) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-191)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Ryan Pepiot 15-Day-IL
Steven Wilson 60-Day-IL
Ixan Henderson Day-To-Day
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals

+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 62% Lean
"Under 7.5 best edge (+2.1 EV) early season low totals + 0.00 ERA arms; Rays ML fade after H2H loss"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Current STL -112 / TB -108 | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on ML; totals show mild under lean but insufficient for +EV
Model: 53.6% win rate | n=28 — Early season small sample; recent H2H Rays ML pick lost
FULL ANALYSIS
Early season matchup with both teams banged up—Cardinals missing Nootbaar (60IL) hurts OF more than Rays' Pepiot IL impacts staff. Model sees under 7.5 as best edge at 67% prob (low total + pitcher ERAs 0.00 across leaders). Rays ML near pickem but 0-2 model vs STL drops confidence; Aranda/Burleson overs on hot starts.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays
-1.2 EV 62%
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
+0.8 EV 59%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
+2.1 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Tampa Bay Rays -115
  • Rays project 55% win probability vs model implied 53.5% due to deeper pitching staff despite Pepiot IL
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
St. Louis Cardinals
  • Model expected scores Rays 4.4 - Cardinals 4.1 yields under 1.5 run differential in 68% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • Model total 8.5 but early April temps + Busch Stadium project 7.8 combined runs (park-adjusted)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays ML -115 model edge (+2.7 EV) on pitching depth vs Cardinals' injury-riddled staff, under 8 proj 7.8 runs Busch factor
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