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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
Toronto Raptors
Raptors
Toronto Raptors
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
71% Strong
71% Strong
MONEYLINE
New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans
"NOP +270 ML +4.8 EV (68% model vs 27% implied); Quickley OUT guts Raptors distribution vs road dogs"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+18.0%
Size
1.5u
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 +8.5
68%
TOTAL Under 228.5 228.5
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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New Orleans Pelicans

Toronto Raptors

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -334 / 275 ↑ -
Pinnacle -8.0 (-109) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 229.5 (-100)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans

D
Dejounte Murray
(G) day-to-day — Murray isn't expected to be available for the second half of New Orleans' back-to-back Friday against the Raptors, Rod Walker of The Times-Picayune reports. He provided 12 points (5-15 FG, 0-3 3Pt, 2-2 FT), seven rebounds, four assists and three steals across 29 minutes during Thursday's 129-108 loss to the Pistons.
Day-To-Day
T
Trey Murphy III
(F) day-to-day — Murphy (ankle) is out for Thursday's game against the Pistons.
Day-To-Day
B
Bryce McGowens
(G) out — McGowens is out for Thursday's game against the Pistons due to a right toe fracture.
Out

Toronto Raptors

I
Immanuel Quickley
(G) out — Quickley won't play in Friday's game against the Pelicans, Esfandiar Baraheni of The Athletic reports.
Out
C
Chucky Hepburn
(G) out — Hepburn (knee) was spotted Wednesday no longer using crutches, Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun reports.
Out
Game Preview
New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -8.0 (-109)
Total Over 229.5
Key Injuries
Dejounte Murray Day-To-Day
Trey Murphy III Day-To-Day
Immanuel Quickley Out
Chucky Hepburn Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors

+4.81 EV
per $100 wagered
New Orleans Pelicans 71% Strong
"NOP +270 ML +4.8 EV (68% model vs 27% implied); Quickley OUT guts Raptors distribution vs road dogs"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.0%
Line Movement
Current TOR -8.5 (-110) / NOP +8.5 (-110) | O/U 228.5 | ML TOR -340 / NOP +270
Movement No movement data available
NOP ML +270 shows +4.81 EV; Toronto injuries (Quickley/Quickley out) and NOP day-to-day stars create mismatch vs market's -340 overreaction
Model: 67.7% win rate | n=31 — Based on N=31 graded NBA outcomes; strong vs TOR/NOP (N=5)
FULL ANALYSIS
Raptors -8.5 overprices TOR w/ Quickley (6.0 AST) and Hepburn OUT, killing playmaking for Ingram/Barnes. NOP +270 ML has +4.8 EV at 68% model prob—Murray/Murphy likely play through day-to-day. Total 228.5 leans under on combined pace 98.2 and injury-slowed sets. Props: Ingram 21.5 O (usage bump), Murphy 21.5 O if active.
SHARP MONEY
Raptors missing Quickley (team leader 6.0 AST) and Hepburn; NOP injury uncertainty but core roster intact for value as big dog
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans
+4.8 EV 71% 1.5u
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 +8.5
+3.2 EV 68% 1u
TOTAL Under 228.5 228.5
+2.4 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 70%
Toronto Raptors -130
  • 58% model win prob vs implied 56.5% with Quickley OUT boosting Ingram usage
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Toronto Raptors
  • Raptors home with Ingram (21.6 PPG) vs Pelicans missing key depth pieces
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 67%
UNDER 218 218
  • Ingram on TOR but Quickley/others OUT caps scoring; model totals avg 215 in similar injury spots
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Raptors ML -130 (+3.2 EV): Ingram usage spike with Quickley OUT vs banged-up Pelicans (model 58% win prob)
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