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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.3% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
"Brewers spread +290 = +48.7% EV on 17.9% sharp divergence vs -430 BOS juice"
EV / $100
+48.7
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.8%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +115.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
27.8%
ML
259 / -259

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -106 / -114 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -102 / -109 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-430) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-171) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-114)
Fair Value Fair Value -161 / 161 103 / -103 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) day-to-day — Lockridge is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Rays.
Day-To-Day
S
Sal Frelick
(RF) day-to-day — Frelick (side) could have played in Sunday's game and was held out as a precaution, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers returned Zastryzny (shoulder) from his rehab assignment Saturday after he suffered a setback in his recovery, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) will report to the Brewers' spring training complex in Arizona later this week to resume throwing live batting practice, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn underwent successful left hamate bone surgery Monday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Yoho (calf) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eduardo Garcia
(OF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas Pannone
(RP) day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out

Boston Red Sox

G
Garrett Whitlock
(RP) Paternity — Boston is expecting Whitlock (paternity leave) to return to the team Monday, Chris Henrique of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
Paternity
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 15-day IL — Oviedo will seek a second opinion on his elbow this week after an initial MRI was inconclusive, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Manager Alex Cora said Saturday that Casas (knee) will begin a swinging progression Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Wednesday that Crawford (wrist) is expected to make his first minor-league rehab start in about two weeks, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-430)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Lockridge Day-To-Day
Sal Frelick Day-To-Day
Garrett Whitlock Paternity
Johan Oviedo 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

+48.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 64% Sharp Lean
"Brewers spread +290 = +48.7% EV on 17.9% sharp divergence vs -430 BOS juice"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.8%
Line Movement
Current MIL -115 / BOS -105 / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
+48.7% EV on Brewers spread at Bovada +290 vs Pinnacle fair 38.1% prob
Model: 53.0% win rate | n=285 — MLB 53% overall, profitable vs MIL 12-5 but spreads/moneylines preferred over losing totals
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money crushing retail with 17.9% spread divergence on Brewers at +290 EV vs Pinnacle fair 38%. MC dead even at 46.2% cover despite omega_spread 0.0, confirms pick'em value. BOS pitching decimated (4 on IL) but early season totals losing across tiers—fade heavy juice.
SHARP MONEY
17.9% spread divergence favoring Brewers, strong signal despite pick'em ML
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
+48.7 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Boston Red Sox -232
  • Omega win prob 69.8% exceeds -232 breakeven (69.4%) by 0.4%; ELO favors BOS 39.3% despite Poisson even scores
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Boston Red Sox 0.0
  • Omega ELO projects Red Sox -3.0 spread despite 0.0 model line; Brewers missing Chourio (IL) weakens lineup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 unusually high for MLB (avg ~8.5); totals losing in Sharp/Strong tiers (42.9%/42.6%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox ML -232 (omega_model): 69.8% win prob edges 69.4% breakeven by 0.4% + ELO -3.0 + MIL injuries
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