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MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +43.1% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -1.5
"Mariners ML +4.9pp (61% post), over 8.5 +15.2pp (65%), +43 EV SEA RL sharp div"
EV / $100
+43.1
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+11.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
61%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1176437 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (86% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 234 trades Kalshi: 2103 trades Largest: $35624
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
30.6%
ML
227 / -227

Player Props Engine

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Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 126 / -150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 126 / -139 -
Value Line - 125 / -155 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-300) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-131) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-118)
De-Vigged Fair Value -124 / 124 133 / -133 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) will throw a bullpen session Monday, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jose Ferrer
(RP) Paternity — The Mariners placed Ferrer on the paternity leave list Monday.
paternity
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) will return from the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Astros, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports
15-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL

Houston Astros

J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday, likely at Double-A Corpus Christi, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) is being built up as a reliever on his rehab assignment, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers (oblique) is slated to begin a rehab assignment this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 10-day IL — Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday against the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) day-to-day — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
L
Lucas Spence
(OF) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-300)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Matt Brash 15-Day-IL
Jose Ferrer paternity
Jeremy Pena 10-Day-IL
Nate Pearson 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

+43.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 60% Lean
"Mariners ML +4.9pp (61% post), over 8.5 +15.2pp (65%), +43 EV SEA RL sharp div"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +11.2%
Line Movement
Current SEA -1.5 -156 / HOU +1.5 +130 (est) | Total 8.5 | ML HOU +129 / SEA -156
Movement No significant movement
Marginal +EV on Mariners ML; massive +24.4 EV on over 8.5 from 65.2% posterior vs 50% implied
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior 61.2% Mariners win (+4.9pp edge) anchored by elo/scoring model agreement HIGH at 1.2% spread variance; omega ML -227 vs market -156 offers better pricing (+2 timing boost). Over 8.5 crushes at 65.2% posterior amid MC 19.0 projected total (21.3% over omega 22.5). Sharp 19.1% spread divergence + +EV 43% away overrides extreme whale home volume.
SHARP MONEY
19.1% sharp edge on spread favoring Mariners; weak 1% on ML away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+43.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
+0.4 EV 61%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Seattle Mariners -156
  • Bayesian posterior 61.2% vs market prior 56.3%, +4.9pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Seattle Mariners -1.5
  • +43.1% EV on Bovada away spread vs Pinnacle fair 45.4% cover prob
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied, +15.2pp; omega total 22.5 vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Astros +2.2 (56% cover edge) + MC even margin; over 8.5 +15pp on 19.3 proj total despite calibration cuts
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