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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
58% Lean
58% Lean
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers None
"Dodgers 58.5% vs 55.2% market (+3.3pp) with sharp+whale confirmation, Braves +1.5 covers 54.8%"
EV / $100
+2.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
-1.2%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
55%
TOTAL over 7.5
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.0% divergence on total with weak signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$272509 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 63 trades Kalshi: 239 trades Largest: $50628
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.5
Edge: -1.0
Total
8.0
Edge: +0.5
Win Prob
36.0%
ML
178 / -178

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 124 / -148 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 128 / -142 -
Value Line - 123 / -148 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-145) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-139) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-143) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 7.5 (-105)
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-101)
Value Line - - Over 7.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -132 / 132 135 / -135 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

M
Miguel Rojas
(2B) day-to-day — Rojas (shoulder) will start at second base and bat sixth in Monday's contest versus the Reds.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Treinen
(RP) 15-day IL — President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Klein
(RP) 60-day IL — Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eric Lauer
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL

Atlanta Braves

M
Martin Perez
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Perez (back) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryce Elder
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Elder (knee) will not be available for the NLDS against the Dodgers, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta recalled Waldrep (elbow) from Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday and placed him on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Reynaldo Lopez
(RP) 15-day IL — Lopez (4-5) took the loss in Monday's 7-3 loss against the Cubs after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over three innings. After the game, manager Walt Weiss stated that Lopez may be placed on the injured list due to a shoulder injury, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Jimenez (knee) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 60-day IL — Strider (elbow) is not expected to return to Atlanta's active roster before the end of this season, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a fracture in his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-145)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Miguel Rojas Day-To-Day
Blake Treinen 15-Day-IL
Martin Perez 15-Day-IL
Bryce Elder 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Atlanta Braves 1.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T22:04:31.357224 UTC

Market Consensus fair value home 65.4% vs retail implies spread cover value on Braves +1.5

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

+2.23 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 58% Lean
"Dodgers 58.5% vs 55.2% market (+3.3pp) with sharp+whale confirmation, Braves +1.5 covers 54.8%"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 60%
Edge -1.2%
Line Movement
Current Dodgers -148 / Braves 123, Spread 1.5, Total 7.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
At -148 vig-inclusive breakeven 59.7% exceeds 58.5% posterior; no vig-inclusive ML edge, devigged edge +3.3pp only
FULL ANALYSIS
Models fuse to Dodgers 58.5% win (+3.3pp over devigged market) with expected score 3.9-4.2 and omega -178 fair vs -148 market, but Monte Carlo sees no edge at 51.1%. Sharp 0.9% to away plus Kalshi 57.5% and EXTREME whale $272K on away confirm direction, while +1.5 posterior 54.8% points to Braves cover in a one-run game and total 8.0 vs 7.5 leans over thinly.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 0.9% to away on ML and spread, no RLM, weak signal; Kalshi 57.5% away aligns; whale AWAY EXTREME $272,509 confirms direction weakly
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
+2.2 EV 58% 0.5u
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+3.5 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+1.9 EV 52%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Los Angeles Dodgers -148
  • Away posterior 58.5% vs devigged market 55.2% (+3.3pp calibrated edge) with sharp and Kalshi confirmation
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • Home +1.5 cover posterior 54.8% vs 50.0% market (+4.8pp edge) favors Braves to keep it within 1
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
OVER 7.5
  • Over 7.5 posterior 51.9% vs 50.0% market (+1.9pp) with OMEGA total and decomposed 8.1 supporting over
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Pick-em with zero model edge: only sharp home spread divergence vs $128K away whales, no bet
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