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Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
0 - 16
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK ALIGNED
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
"Bucs -2.5 at even money on a 27.1 vs 25.7 form edge, but the -130 ML is 0% EV and the 6-point total gap is razor-thin — LEAN cupsize only."
EV / $100
+1.4
Win Prob
56%
Edge
-0.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
55%
TOTAL over 43.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Weather Impact
Tampa: Patchy rain nearby | 79°F | Wind 12 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Patchy rain nearby): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-3.0
Edge: -0.5
Total
49.5
Edge: +6.0
Win Prob
56.5%
ML
-130 / 130

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -140 / 120 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 118 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (-112) - -
Market Consensus -2.5 (-102) ↓ - -
Value Line -15.5 (-148) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 44.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 43.0 (-102)
Value Line - - Over 16.5 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value 103 / -103 -125 / 125 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons

D
Drake London
(WR) active — London brought in one of six targets for eight yards in the Falcons' 16-0 loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Active
B
Bijan Robinson
(RB) active — Robinson rushed 19 times for 76 yards and failed to bring in his only target in the Falcons' 16-0 loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Active
Z
Zachariah Branch
(WR) questionable — questionable
Questionable
S
Samson Ebukam
(DE) questionable — Ebukam (hamstring) is doubtful to return to Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Questionable
O
Olamide Zaccheaus
(WR) active — Zaccheaus (shoulder) is active for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Active
A
Avieon Terrell
(CB) active — Terrell (back/illness) is active for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay.
Active
A
Andy Dalton
(QB) out — Dalton is inactive for Sunday's game versus the Buccaneers, though he will be available as the team's emergency backup if necessary.
Out
J
Jack Strand
(QB) out — inactive
Out
R
Robert Longerbeam
(CB) out — inactive
Out
B
Brian Robinson Jr.
(RB) out — inactive
Out
D
Drake Jackson
(DE) out — inactive
Out
C
Charles Snowden
(LB) active
Active
C
Cameron Williams
(OL) Injured Reserve — Williams (ankle) will remain on injured reserve and has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Tori McElhany of the Falcons' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
B
Billy Bowman Jr.
(CB) out — Bowman (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Out
D
Divine Deablo
(LB) out — Deablo (forearm) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Out
B
Beaux Collins
(WR) Injured Reserve — Collins (hip) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers and will remain on injured reserve, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
K
Khalil Herbert
(RB) active — The Falcons elevated Herbert from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.
Active
A
Anterio Thompson
(DT) out — Thompson posted on social media this week that he was diagnosed with a genetic mutation on his spinal cord in early May and indicated that he was told he will "never play football again," Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports.
Out
A
A.J. Terrell Jr.
(CB) active — Terrell (groin) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Active
C
C.J. Henderson
(CB) active — Henderson (groin) does not have an injury designation against the Buccaneers on Sunday, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Active
K
Kendal Daniels
(LB) active — Daniels (Achilles) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Active
C
Cameron Thomas
(DE) active
Active
L
LaCale London
(DE) active
Active
J
Jawaan Taylor
(OT) active
Active
X
Xavier Watts
(S) active — Watts notched seven tackles (three solo) and forced a fumble Sunday in a 29-20 Week 7 victory against the 49ers.
Active

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

K
Kenny Gainwell
(RB) active — Gainwell rushed 25 times for 140 yards in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Active
B
Bucky Irving
(RB) active — Irving rushed 27 times for 170 yards and a touchdown in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Active
Y
Yaya Diaby
(LB) questionable — Diaby (knee) won't return to Sunday's game versus the Falcons, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.
Questionable
L
Luke Goedeke
(OT) active — Goedeke (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
G
Graham Barton
(C) active — Barton (illness) is active for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
T
Tez Johnson
(WR) active — Johnson is in line to see additional snaps and targets in Sunday's Week 8 matchup against the Falcons, as Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) remains sidelined for the contest per Scott Smith of the team's official site.
Active
C
Chris Godwin Jr.
(WR) active — Godwin is in line to operate as the Buccaneers de facto No. 1 receiver again in Sunday's Week 8 matchup against the Falcons, as Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) is inactive for the contest per Scott Smith of the team's official site.
Active
B
Billy Schrauth
(G) out — inactive
Out
A
Ayden Garnes
(CB) out — inactive
Out
L
Luke Haggard
(G) out — inactive
Out
D
DeMonte Capehart
(DT) out — inactive
Out
E
Emeka Egbuka
(WR) out — inactive
Out
J
Josiah Trotter
(LB) active — Trotter (illness) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday.
Active
J
Josh Hayes
(CB) Injured Reserve — Hayes suffered a small setback in his recovery from a knee injury, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.
Injured Reserve
A
Antoine Winfield Jr.
(S) active — Winfield (ribs) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
B
Baker Mayfield
(QB) active — Mayfield, who was a full practice participant Wednesday, said that he's still taking a day-by-day approach when it comes to wearing a glove to protect his dislocated right thumb, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
T
Tykee Smith
(S) active — Smith posted seven tackles (one solo), an interception and a blocked extra-point attempt Sunday in a 43-13 Week 7 win against Carolina.
Active
T
Ted Hurst III
(WR) active — Hurst didn't record a catch on one target in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers.
Active
J
Jalon Daniels
(QB) active — Daniels was back in his primary reserve role behind Baker Mayfield in Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers.
Active
C
Cade Otton
(TE) active — Otton failed to catch his only target during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers.
Active
S
Sean Tucker
(RB) active — Tucker rushed seven times for 52 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 43-13 win against Carolina.
Active
C
Chase McLaughlin
(PK) active — McLaughlin made both of his field-goal tries while going 5-for-5 on PATs during Sunday's 43-13 win over the Panthers.
Active
Z
Zyon McCollum
(CB) active — McCollum (illness) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Panthers, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.
Active
C
Christian Rozeboom
(LB) Injured Reserve — Rozeboom (finger) was placed on injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports.
Injured Reserve
D
David Sills V
(WR) active — Sills (hamstring) was activated from injured reserve by the Buccaneers on Thursday, Scott Smith of the team's official website reports.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
0
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
60% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-102) WIN · Recorded 2026-10-30T17:43:40.071915 UTC

OMEGA line (-3.0) sits a half-point above the market's -2.5, and -102 pricing beats standard vig, giving a small positive-EV spot on the home favorite

Player Prop: over (-110) LOSS · Recorded 2026-10-31T02:56:55.452379 UTC

Model projection only — with Egbuka OUT, Tampa leans volume passing; projected line is model-derived, no bookmaker market supplied.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

+1.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60% Lean
"Bucs -2.5 at even money on a 27.1 vs 25.7 form edge, but the -130 ML is 0% EV and the 6-point total gap is razor-thin — LEAN cupsize only."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 57%
Edge -0.1%
Line Movement
Current TB -2.5 (-105/-115), Total 43.5
Movement No opening line supplied; current price only.
PRECIPITATION (patchy rain nearby): +18% under, +25% fumbles Tampa Bay 0-4 at home vs Atlanta 2-1 on the road Tampa Bay 2-5 with OL injuries (Schrauth, Haggard OUT)
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA's Poisson+EL0 blend says TB -3.0 and total 49.5-50.7 while the market sits at -2.5 and 43.5. That 6-point total gap is the real signal, but patchy rain historically pushes under (+18%), and we can't resolve whether the market is pricing weather or the model is stale — no open line was supplied. ML at -130 is a pure no-edge pass (our 56.5% equals breakeven). Take the 2.5 points split only at LEAN sizing; this sport is display-only, never bet.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
+1.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
55%
TOTAL over 43.5
+2.0 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -130
  • None — our 56.5% posterior equals the -130 breakeven (56.5%); this is vig, not edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
  • OMEGA line is -3.0 vs market -2.5, and TB's EWMA recent form (27.1) edges Atlanta (25.7)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 43.5
  • OMEGA scoring model total projects 49.5-50.7 vs market 43.5 — a 6-point gap toward the over
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 43.5 at -118: Poisson (49.5) and decomposed (50.7) both scream 6 points past the quote; Bucs -2.5 catches the 3 key number at half-point value.
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