Spread: Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T11:43:19.243084 UTC
Away +1.5 cover posterior 54.8% vs 50.0% market (+4.8pp); OMEGA -0.5 vs market -1.5 shows 1.0 pt overpricing of home
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
New York Yankees
Yankees
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 19.9% divergence on ML with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline, total.
Sharp: home
Boost: +4
Whale Activity Detected
$169776 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 56 trades
Kalshi: 192 trades
Largest: $15000
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-0.5
Edge: +1.0
Total
8.0
Edge: +1.0
Win Prob
45.9%
ML
118 / -118
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGATampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -164 / 138 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -169 / 155 | - |
| Value Line | - | 320 / -560 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | -1.5 (140) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.5 (136) ↓ | - | - |
| Value Line | -1.5 (1150) ↓ | - | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 7.0 (-125) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 7.0 (-109) |
| Value Line | - | - | Over 8.5 (250) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 144 / -144 | -163 / 163 | O/U -103 / 103 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
S
Shane McClanahan
J
Jacob Melton
G
Gavin Lux
E
Edwin Uceta
J
Jonathan Heasley
R
Ryan Pepiot
New York Yankees
A
Aaron Judge
C
Clarke Schmidt
F
Fernando Cruz
K
Kervin Castro
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays (+138)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-08T00:23:29.875898 UTC
calibrated away posterior 45.3% vs 37.9% market (+7.4pp) at +138
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-08T02:03:09.547009 UTC
Bellinger is the Yankees' top active hitter (.264 avg) with Judge out. He should get 4+ ABs and has a high floor for a single hit. Model projection: 0.8 hits. Cap confidence at 60 due to unvalidated roster.
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
+10.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays
45%
Lean
"Rays +138 shows +10.2 EV as Bayesian 45.3% tops 37.9% market with OMEGA only -0.5 vs -1.5"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
45%
Book Implied
38%
Edge
+7.4%
Line Movement
Current
Yankees -1.5 / Total 7.0 / Yankees -164
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Away ML +138 with 45.3% posterior vs 37.9% market = +7.4pp edge, +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Books hang Yankees -164 (62.1%) but Bayesian fusion says 54.7% home, leaving Rays +138 with +7.4pp edge and MC projecting 4.5-3.5. OMEGA has Yankees only -0.5 and total 8.0 vs 7.0, favoring Rays +1.5 (54.8%) and over lean (51.2%). Sharps pound home ML (+4 boost) while EXTREME $169k whale volume backs away, so take contrarian away value at low confidence.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 19.9% to home on ML with RLM YES, strong signal; spread sharp edge 0.7% weak to home; total sharp edge 10.1% to over with RLM YES
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
45%
Tampa Bay Rays 138
- calibrated away posterior 45.3% vs 37.9% market (+7.4pp) at +138
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
- Away +1.5 cover posterior 54.8% vs 50.0% market (+4.8pp); OMEGA -0.5 vs market -1.5 shows 1.0 pt overpricing of home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
51%
OVER 7.0
- Over posterior 51.2% vs 50.0% market (+1.2pp); OMEGA total vs market 7.0
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Yankees -158 matches 61.2% fair for zero ML edge; only edge is over 7.0 with +6.9% EV and sharp over lean
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