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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"Red Sox spread +1.5: sharp money divergence +14%, $1.85M whale volume, +7.1 EV — institutional money is in. Over 8.0: model projects 19+ runs vs market 8.0, +15.2pp Bayesian edge."
EV / $100
+7.1
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+0.5%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1849399 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 836 trades Kalshi: 174 trades Largest: $64399
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
40.5%
ML
147 / -147

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -121 / 101 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -116 / 105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (360) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (179) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 194 / -194 -110 / 110 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Grisham (hamstring) is expected to return from the injured list during New York's upcoming homestand, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan McMahon
(3B) 10-day IL — The Yankees placed McMahon on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a throat infection.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that Fried (elbow) is expected to begin facing hitters by late June or early July, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Interim manager Chad Tracy said that Gonzalez (shoulder) won't be activated off the injured list before Saturday's game against the Yankees, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jovani Moran
(RP) 15-day IL — Moran (elbow) will make at least one more rehab appearance before being activated, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
(2B) 10-day IL — Kiner-Falefa underwent a CT scan on his left forearm Thursday which revealed a stress reaction, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Marcelo Mayer
(2B) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Mayer on the 10-day injured list Friday with a stress reaction in his left forearm, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Wednesday that Anthony (finger/wrist) hasn't made any substantive progress in his recovery back in Boston since the Red Sox began their road trip last weekend, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 60-day IL — Crochet (shoulder/lat) has not yet been cleared to resume a throwing program following a scheduled re-evaluation Monday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Story
(SS) 60-day IL — Story (abdomen) has begun jogging and swinging off a tee, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) went three innings, allowing one earned run on one hit and one walk while striking out four Wednesday for Double-A Portland, reports Christopher Smith of MassLive.com.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Sogard
(3B) 10-day IL — Sogard (oblique) told reporters Friday that he plans to start swinging a bat Monday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 60-day IL — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Tuesday that Crawford (elbow) is dealing with moderate tightness in his right forearm, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (360)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Ryan McMahon 10-Day-IL
Romy Gonzalez 60-Day-IL
Jovani Moran 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

+7.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 68% Strong
"Red Sox spread +1.5: sharp money divergence +14%, $1.85M whale volume, +7.1 EV — institutional money is in. Over 8.0: model projects 19+ runs vs market 8.0, +15.2pp Bayesian edge."
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +0.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home -120 / Away +100, Total: 8.0, Spread: Home -1.5
Movement No significant movement detected. Market is stable.
Slight edge on home moneyline but below actionable threshold. The real value is on the spread where sharp money is concentrated.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is hammering the Red Sox spread with 14% edge and $1.85M in whale volume — institutional conviction is extreme. The Bayesian total posterior of 65.2% over vs market 50% is the strongest signal in the card, driven by model projections of 19+ combined runs vs market 8.0. The spread pick is the primary play with +7.1 EV per $100; the over is a high-confidence secondary. Degraded data quality (68%) warrants slight caution but the sharp signals are unambiguous.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 14.0% with strong signal. +EV analysis shows spread home on Bovada at +350 offers +50.0% EV vs Pinnacle fair value of 34.4%. Whale volume of $1.85M (EXTREME tier) aligns with home side at 69% confidence. Prediction markets (52.5%) slightly below books but within noise.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+7.1 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+0.9 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+4.5 EV 60% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Boston Red Sox -120
  • Bayesian posterior shows 55.0% win probability vs market 54.5% — only +0.4pp edge
  • Below actionable threshold
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Sharp money divergence: 14% edge on home spread with strong signal, plus +EV analysis shows Bovada offering +350 on home spread vs Pinnacle fair value of 34.4% — a +50% EV opportunity
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0% — +15.2pp edge
  • Monte Carlo simulation projects 9.9-9.3 score (total 19.2), far above market 8.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 8.0 at -110: Bayesian fusion shows 65% over probability, a 15% edge; even with data degradation, this is a high-value play.
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