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Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
69% Strong
69% Strong
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
"Dodgers ML -232 +3.2 EV: 72.5% model prob vs 69.8% implied, 2-0 vs LAD + Yamamoto K edge"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
72%
Edge
+22.5%
Size
1u
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
66%
TOTAL Under 8.5 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -235 / 207 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (-114) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.5 (-113)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

P
Pavin Smith
(1B) day-to-day — Smith will undergo an MRI on his left elbow Friday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Merrill Kelly
(SP) 15-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Kelly on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to left intercostal nerve irritation.
15-Day-IL
L
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Gurriel (knee) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Locklear (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Adrian Del Castillo
(C) 10-day IL — Del Castillo (calf) is continuing to rehab and has begun running, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) has begun throwing bullpen sessions off a mound, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) out — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out

Los Angeles Dodgers

B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) will begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers signed Cousins (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Snell (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Stone (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Monday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — The Dodgers placed Edman (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Monday.
10-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 15-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) said Wednesday that he's optimistic about being activated from the 60-day injured list when first eligible May 24, Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (-114)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Pavin Smith Day-To-Day
Blake Walston 60-Day-IL
Brock Stewart 15-Day-IL
Jake Cousins 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 69% Strong
"Dodgers ML -232 +3.2 EV: 72.5% model prob vs 69.8% implied, 2-0 vs LAD + Yamamoto K edge"
72% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 72%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +22.5%
Line Movement
Current LAD -232 / ARI +189 | Total 8.5
Movement No movement data available
+3.2 EV on Dodgers ML at -232; edge from model calibration vs Dbacks (2-0 yesterday)
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Based on N=21 graded MLB outcomes; strong vs Dodgers (2W-0L)
FULL ANALYSIS
Dodgers -232 holds +2.7% model edge after yesterday's H2H win; Yamamoto's 6K debut projects 6.8 vs Dbacks' depleted rotation (Kelly out). Total under 8.5 on early-season pitching (7.8 runs avg G1). Injuries hit Dbacks harder with Gurriel/Smith out, boosting LAD CLV projection.
SHARP MONEY
No RLM/steam data; heavy public juice expected on Dodgers but model supports home side
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers
+3.2 EV 69% 1u
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+2.1 EV 66% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.5 8.5
+1.8 EV 65% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
Los Angeles Dodgers -155
  • Dodgers superior roster depth (Ohtani/Betts/Freeman core intact) vs Dbacks missing Marte/Gurriel/Kelly gives +12% home win edge in divisional spot
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Model expected score differential 1.4 runs favors Dodgers covering 1.5 in 58% of sims despite Dbacks pen injuries
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • Opening day starters sharp (ERA ~3.20 career openers) + combined IL pitchers project -0.8 runs/game pushes total under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers ML -155 model edge (+2.4 EV): Ohtani/Betts/Freeman intact vs Dbacks missing Marte/Kelly/Gurriel in divisional opener.
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