MLS
Austin FC
FC
San Diego FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$7528239 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 2622 trades
Largest: $319165
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
39.3%
ML
155 / -155
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAustin FC
San Diego FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-3.9
Moneyline
SAN 175
/
AUS -175
Win Probability
36%
-
64%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Austin FC @ San Diego FC
+21.6 EV
per $100 wagered
over
64%
Sharp Lean
"Over 3.5 +13.7pp Bayesian edge (63.7% posterior, omega 7.5 total); Austin ML +9.9pp vs juiced -155 home"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
49%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-0.9%
Line Movement
Current
SD -0.5 / O/U 3.5 / ML SD -155 / Austin +320
Movement
No significant movement
Massive +EV on Austin ML (+320) at 49.1% prob vs 39.2% implied; over 3.5 also +21.6 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects 3.8-3.8 (total 7.6) vs market 3.5, Bayesian over posterior 63.7% (+13.7pp EV despite totals calibration hit). Austin ML/spread value from 49.1% away win prob vs 39.2% implied, MC confirms 46.8% home win only; whales on home reduce conviction but not edge. Degraded data caps at leans/sharp leans.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $7.5M from 100 profitable wallets at 61% on home, institutional signal despite model divergence
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Austin FC +320
- Away posterior 49.1% vs market 39.2% (+9.9pp edge); contradicts whales but model consensus strong
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Austin FC 0.5
- Home cover prob 50.9% (Bayesian) vs 61.5% implied on -0.5 (-160); omega spread 0.0
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
64%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian posterior 63.7% over 3.5 vs 50% implied (+13.7pp), omega 7.5 and MC 6.7 total
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Austin FC ML +8.4pp Bayesian edge vs Kalshi (+19.6 EV); MC under 7.5 65.2%
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