Home › MLB › Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
7 - 2
Final
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 1.5
"Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability on total 7.0, yielding +24.5 EV per $100 despite strong pitching matchup."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
67%
Edge
-1.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
55%
TOTAL over 7.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
44.9%
ML
123 / -123

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -210 / 170 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -192 / 175 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (250) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (121) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 127 / -127 -184 / 184 O/U 111 / -111
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) will make his season debut for the Reds on Saturday versus the Orioles, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dane Myers
(CF) 10-day IL — The Reds placed Myers on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a left shoulder contusion, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Manager Terry Francona said that Hayes (back) will face live pitching at the Reds' facility in Arizona on Wednesday or Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Dunn
(CF) 10-day IL — Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tony Santillan
(RP) 15-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL

Milwaukee Brewers

C
Carlos Rodriguez
(RP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Henderson
(SP) 15-day IL — Henderson (back) will make his next minor-league rehab start Friday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
DL Hall
(RP) 15-day IL — Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Coleman Crow
(SP) 15-day IL — Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Lockridge
(LF) 10-day IL — Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 60-day IL — Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brian Fitzpatrick
(RP) 60-day IL — Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 60-day IL — The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
7
-
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
2
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
55% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 55% Lean
"Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability on total 7.0, yielding +24.5 EV per $100 despite strong pitching matchup."
67% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 67%
Book Implied 69%
Edge -1.4%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -1.5, Total: 7.0, Moneyline: Home -219 / Away +178
Movement No significant movement detected.
Negative EV on moneyline; market overprices home.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money and whale signals heavily favor the Brewers on the spread, but the model's Bayesian posterior suggests the Reds cover +1.5 at a slight edge. The total over 7.0 shows a significant edge from the fusion model, though starting pitchers with low ERAs pose risk. Given the model's historical underperformance, we lean toward the total over as the strongest signal.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 16.7% on spread favoring home with strong signal. Whale signals also heavily favor home with extreme volume tier.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
-2.0 EV 55%
TOTAL over 7.0
+24.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -219
  • No edge; market implied probability exceeds model posterior
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
  • Model posterior favors away cover at 53.9% vs market 52.4% implied, yielding small positive EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 7.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50% implied, yielding strong positive EV
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds +2.0 at -175 edges Pinnacle's sharp 43.4% fair value by +6.2% EV, but the over 8.5 at 65.2% posterior (+15.2pp edge) is the real alpha — even degraded data can't explain a 14-run market miss.
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