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Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators
Senators
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Detroit Red Wings
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
MONEYLINE
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
"Injury carnage both sides totals 5.9 vs 6.5 line (+4.2 EV under); fade DET ML at -112 with Larkin/Rasmussen sidelined"
EV / $100
-3.7
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
SPREAD Ottawa Senators +112
59%
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Ottawa Senators

Detroit Red Wings

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -122 / 102 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -118 / 105 -
Kambi - -127 / 110 -
Bovada Best Line 2.5 (-625) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (210) ↓ - -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 2.5 (130)
Pinnacle - - Over 6.0 (-102)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Ottawa Senators

L
Lassi Thomson
(D) out — out
Out
T
Thomas Chabot
(D) out — Head coach Travis Green said after Monday's 2-1 win over the Rangers that Chabot (right arm) will be out for a while, Julian McKenzie of The Athletic reports.
Out
N
Nick Jensen
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
D
Dennis Gilbert
(D) out — out
Out
J
Jake Sanderson
(D) out — Per Claire Hanna of TSN, Sanderson (upper body) has returned to the ice and could be back in action in 7-10 days, according to head coach Travis Green.
Out

Detroit Red Wings

D
Dylan Larkin
(C) day-to-day — Larkin (leg) is considered a game-time decision for Tuesday's matchup against the Senators, Max Bultman of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Rasmussen
(C) out — Rasmussen (undisclosed) will be unavailable for at least one week, per Taylor Baird of NHL.com on Saturday.
Out
Game Preview
Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-625)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Lassi Thomson Out
Thomas Chabot Out
Dylan Larkin Day-To-Day
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings

+-3.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Ottawa Senators 62% Lean
"Injury carnage both sides totals 5.9 vs 6.5 line (+4.2 EV under); fade DET ML at -112 with Larkin/Rasmussen sidelined"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current DET -112 / OTT -108 | Spread DET -112 | Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
Negative EV on both ML sides at current prices
Model: 50.0% win rate | n=6 — Early dataset; leaning market priors with injury adjustments
FULL ANALYSIS
DET hammered by injuries (Larkin DTD, Rasmussen OUT) drops their win prob to 48% vs -112 pricing, but Ottawa's top D out (Sanderson/Gilbert) caps the edge. Model totals 5.9 goals on depleted rosters—under 6.5 has +4.2 EV. Props lean overs on volume horses DeBrincat/Stutzle who feast on matchup chaos.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Ottawa Senators
-3.7 EV 62%
SPREAD Ottawa Senators +112
-1.2 EV 59%
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
+4.2 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 0%
Ottawa Senators 0
  • The Ottawa Senators present solid value as the underdog with strong fundamentals
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 6.5 6.5
  • Combined injuries to key contributors (DET 3 players, OTT 3 D) suppress scoring; model totals 5.9 goals vs 6.5 line
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