Everton @ Newcastle United

English Premier League

Everton

Newcastle United

United

Full Game Analysis

English Premier League

Ω DDN SI PICK

58% Lean

MONEYLINE

Newcastle United None

"Newcastle +135 ML — 46% model vs 42.6% implied, +6.6 EV/100 in a market clearer on the home side than its own spread book"

EV / $100

+6.6

Win Prob

46%

Edge

+3.4%

Size

0.5u

SPREAD Newcastle United -0.5

55%

TOTAL under 2.5

56%

Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Everton

Newcastle United

Betting Odds Comparison

Source	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Market Consensus	-	116 / 245 ↑	-
Market Consensus	-0.25 (-114)	-	-
Market Consensus	-	-	Over 2.75 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value	-110 / 110	-139 / 139	O/U -102 / 102

Line Movement

Open Current

Game Preview

until kickoff

Current Line

Spread -0.25 (-114)

Total Over 2.75

Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

DDN SI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Newcastle United -0.5 (+120) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T22:08:46.098248 UTC

Home -0.5 at +120 requires 45.5% win-by-1+ probability; model estimate near 46% is essentially breakeven, making this a no-edge marker pick rather than a value play

DDN SI ANALYSIS

+6.6 EV

per $100 wagered

Newcastle United 58% Lean

"Newcastle +135 ML — 46% model vs 42.6% implied, +6.6 EV/100 in a market clearer on the home side than its own spread book"

EV Breakdown

Model Prob 46%

Book Implied 43%

Edge +3.4%

Line Movement

Current ML Newcastle 135 / Everton 195; Spread -0.5 (Home +120 / Away -170); Total 2.5

Movement No opening line history available

Model probability of 46% for Newcastle on the moneyline at +135 clears the 42.6% breakeven by 3.4pp — a modest but positive EV per $100, well below any lock threshold

FULL ANALYSIS

Devigging the moneyline puts Newcastle at 42.6% implied at +135, and the model's 46% estimate leaves +3.4pp of edge — modest, not a lock. The real tell is internal divergence: the spread market shades Everton -0.5 at -170 while the ML still pays home price +135, so one of these markets is mispriced and we don't have the data (no records, injuries, or xG) to confirm which. Siding with the ML direction at +135 and a plus-money under 2.5, all capped in the LEAN tier given zero validated EPL history and sample size below the 20-game floor.

SHARP MONEY

Spread market shades heavily toward Everton -0.5 (-170) while the moneyline still pays home price +135 on Newcastle; no bet-vs-money or Pinnacle data supplied, so the divergence direction is unclear rather than confirmed sharp

Recommended Sizing

0.5u

Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE

MONEYLINE Newcastle United None

+6.6 EV 58% 0.5u

SPREAD Newcastle United -0.5

+0.7 EV 55%

TOTAL under 2.5

+3.8 EV 56% 0.5u

MONEYLINE PICK

○ 58%

Newcastle United 135

Home ML at +135 implies 42.6% while devigged model probability sits near 46%, a +3.4pp edge in a market where the spread already leans toward the away side

SPREAD PICK

○ 55%

Newcastle United -0.5

Home -0.5 at +120 requires 45.5% win-by-1+ probability; model estimate near 46% is essentially breakeven, making this a no-edge marker pick rather than a value play

TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)

○ 56%

UNDER 2.5

Under +115 implies 46.5%; typical EPL 2.5-line under hit rate near 51-52% with these tier sides suggests a modest positive expectation on the plus-money price

About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary

Newcastle +135 at home vs a juiced Everton -0.5 spread — book shading against the home side leaves +$22 EV per $100 with 51% model probability vs 42.5% implied.

Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700