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NHL
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights
Knights
Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +50.0% EV
48% Lean
48% Lean
MONEYLINE
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights None
Win Prob
52%
SPREAD Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5
69%
TOTAL under 6.5
47%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 20.6% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline, spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$25494 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (93% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 5 trades Largest: $18286

Player Props Engine

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Vegas Golden Knights

Pittsburgh Penguins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -112 / -108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -108 / -102 -
Value Line - -105 / -114 -
Sharp Action Best Line -1.5 (225) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-265) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-275) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.5 (-120)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-112)
Value Line - - Over 6.5 (-121)
De-Vigged Fair Value -248 / 248 -103 / 103 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Vegas Golden Knights

P
Parker Wotherspoon
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Pittsburgh Penguins

E
Evgeni Malkin
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
K
Kaedan Korczak
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
E
Elmer Soderblom
(LW) Injured Reserve — Soderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Injured Reserve
B
Bryan Rust
(RW) Injured Reserve — Rust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
T
Trevor van Riemsdyk
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
R
Ryan Graves
(D) Injured Reserve — Graves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Vegas Golden Knights @ Pittsburgh Penguins
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (225)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Parker Wotherspoon Injured Reserve
Evgeni Malkin Day-To-Day
Kaedan Korczak Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5 (-258) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T18:10:03.966150 UTC

Home +1.5 cover posterior is 69.4%, but at -258 the breakeven is 72.1% — the posterior clears the breakeven by less than it appears and the 20.3% sharp divergence is already fully priced into the juice.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T00:37:26.754190 UTC

Model projection only — no bookmaker line or roster data available; Stone leads Vegas shot volume and draws a depleted Pittsburgh blue line (van Riemsdyk, Graves, Wotherspoon all out), clearing a modest usage edge.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Vegas Golden Knights @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Vegas Golden Knights 48% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Zero-edge coin flip per Bayesian fusion (0.0pp on every market) — sharp money loves Penguins +1.5 but -258 juice eats the entire edge; full .
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 52%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home -108 / Away -112 | Spread 1.5 (Home -258 / Away +210) | Total 6.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Market says coin flip: home ML -108/-112 with devigged ~51.9% and zero Bayesian edge across ML, spread, and total. The only loud signal — sharp divergence on the Pittsburgh +1.5 puck line (20.3%, strong, RLM) — is fully encoded in -258 juice (72.1% breakeven vs 69.4% posterior), so it's not actionable. Pittsburgh's injury stack (Rust and Soderblom on IR, Malkin day-to-day, -25% net impact) is the real story, but the line already bought it. With NHL calibration paused (-13.9% ROI) our own override says don't generate — this slate entry is zero-unit, watch-only.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Vegas Golden Knights None
48%
SPREAD Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5
69%
TOTAL under 6.5
47%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 48%
Vegas Golden Knights -112
  • None — away posterior (48.1%) is within 0.1pp of the market; this is a no-edge price on a puck that's effectively a coin flip
SPREAD PICK
● 69%
Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5
  • Home +1.5 cover posterior is 69.4%, but at -258 the breakeven is 72.1% — the posterior clears the breakeven by less than it appears and the 20.3% sharp divergence is already fully priced into the juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 47%
UNDER 6.5
  • None — under posterior 48.7% vs 48.6% devigged fair value is +0.2pp, pure noise; totals are historically our weakest NHL market (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No bet: Penguins 51% posterior is pure coin-flip vig with zero market price and NHL paused — whale money ($25.5K, 93% home) is confirmation without an edge
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