Home › MLB › St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
11 - 5
Final
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1.5
"Over 8.5 has +12.5 EV with sharp money confirmation; home spread +1.5 shows solid +2.9 EV; trust the Bayesian edge here."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.9%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
48%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
38.0%
ML
163 / -163

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -119 / -101 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -113 / 105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (177) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 189 / -189 -109 / 109 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

D
Dustin May
(SP) day-to-day — X-rays on May's injured right ankle came back negative Thursday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryne Stanek
(RP) Paternity — The Cardinals placed Stanek on the paternity leave list Tuesday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Paternity
R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 60-day IL — Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
60-Day-IL

Atlanta Braves

A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Smith-Shawver (elbow) pitched three innings Tuesday during a rehab start with Single-A Augusta, allowing one run on three hits while striking out four batters, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) 10-day IL — Acuna (hamstring) went through a full pregame workout at Truist Park in Atlanta on Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Schwellenbach (elbow) will likely report to Atlanta's spring training facility in early July and could be a candidate to rejoin the major-league rotation by late August or early September, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Suarez
(RP) 15-day IL — An MRI on Suarez's right elbow came back negative Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Young (elbow) walked and hit a batter but struck out three in a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Farmer
(DH) 10-day IL — Farmer (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 60-day IL — Murphy had the cast on his left hand removed Tuesday and is now wearing a splint to protect his fractured middle finger, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reprots.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss revealed Wednesday that Jimenez underwent another surgery on his left knee 3-to-4 weeks ago, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
suspension
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
11
-
Atlanta Braves
Braves
5
Atlanta Braves 1.5
55% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 55% Lean
"Over 8.5 has +12.5 EV with sharp money confirmation; home spread +1.5 shows solid +2.9 EV; trust the Bayesian edge here."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.9%
Line Movement
Current ML: -117/+103; Spread: +1.5; Total: 8.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Home team injury impact -6.9% vs away -10.6% (net home advantage)
Positive EV on home spread +1.5 driven by calibrated edge and sharp money
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives home spread +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability and over 8.5 a 65.2% probability, both well above market. Sharp money (13.5% edge) and whales ($1.49M volume) heavily on home. Despite degraded data quality and a weird Omega model, the posterior plus cross-market signals make the over the strongest play. Total confidence capped at LEAN due to MLB total volatility and past tier performance. Spread is a thin LEAN. No moneyline value. Player props on Olson, Harris, and Sale leverage the high-run environment.
SHARP MONEY
13.5% sharp edge on spread with strong signal, whale volume $1.49M (71% home), prediction market alignment
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Cardinals None
-3.4 EV 48%
TOTAL over 8.5
+12.5 EV 62% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 48%
St. Louis Cardinals -103
  • Slight Bayesian edge (+1.8pp) but negative EV; not recommended
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives 53.9% cover probability vs market 50.0%, sharp money heavily on home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over probability vs market 50.0%; massive edge despite data quality concerns
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals +133 ML: Bayesian edge +6.7pp, sharp money + prediction markets agree market overprices Braves — but no pitcher data caps confidence to LEAN
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