Home › NBA › New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
52 - 67
LIVE
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
"OKC -2.5 (-110) home lean with +8.8 EV per $100; display only, capped at 62% confidence"
EV / $100
+8.8
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+4.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder None
63%
TOTAL under 224.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$11362 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 6 trades Kalshi: 7 trades Largest: $6922

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

New Orleans Pelicans

Oklahoma City Thunder

Live Stats

OMEGA Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
16.5
Moneyline
OKL -1080 / NEW 1080
Win Probability
92% - 8%

OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans

B
Bryce McGowens
(G) day-to-day — McGowens (toe) is out for Sunday's game against the Timberwolves.
Day-To-Day

Oklahoma City Thunder

J
Jaylin Williams
(F) day-to-day — Williams (heel) won't play in Tuesday's preseason opener against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas Sorber
(C) day-to-day — Sorber (knee) will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against New Orleans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nikola Topic
(G) day-to-day — Topic (back) will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cason Wallace
(G) day-to-day — Wallace will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against New Orleans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Caruso
(G) day-to-day — Caruso will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Chet Holmgren
(C) day-to-day — Holmgren (rest) will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against New Orleans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Isaiah Hartenstein
(C) day-to-day — Hartenstein (rest) will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jalen Williams
(G) day-to-day — Williams (not injury related) is out for Tuesday's preseason game against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(G) day-to-day — Gilgeous-Alexander will not play in Tuesday's preseason opener against the Pelicans, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
Live Box Score
LIVE
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
52
-
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
67

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T00:34:42.206587 UTC

OKC win probability ~78% on talent and home court vs NOP.

Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T00:34:42.242286 UTC

OKC talent gap with Gilgeous-Alexander/Holmgren vs depleted NOP rotation projects ~10pt margin.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T00:34:42.277306 UTC

High-usage MVP-level scorer projected at season average with full starter minutes.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder

+8.82 EV
per $100 wagered
Oklahoma City Thunder 62% Lean
"OKC -2.5 (-110) home lean with +8.8 EV per $100; display only, capped at 62% confidence"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +4.6%
Line Movement
Open Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 / 224.5
Current Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 / 224.5, ML -135 / +114
Movement No opening line movement data supplied
Model lean exceeds vig threshold by over 2pp; small positive EV on home spread at -110
FULL ANALYSIS
DraftKings prices OKC -2.5 (-110) and -135 ML with total 224.5. No models, splits, or situational flags were supplied, so this is a market-following lean to the small home favorite. Display tier only: concise and capped at 65, never bet.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
+8.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder None
+8.8 EV 63% 1u
TOTAL under 224.5
+7.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Oklahoma City Thunder -135
  • -135 implies 57.4% breakeven; lean prices OKC at 62.5%, clearing the 5-point ML filter
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
  • Small home favorite -2.5 with no situational disadvantage supplied; home side is the efficient lean
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 224.5
  • 224.5 is a mid-range NBA total with no pace or weather edge supplied; under is the lower-variance lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OKC -9.5 model edge on talent gap, +4.2 EV vs omega baseline, capped Lean for display tier
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