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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +30.6% EV
74% High Edge
74% High Edge
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -175
"Coors total massacre: omega 24.0 vs 11.0 market + Phillies +30.6% spread EV on sharp RLM"
EV / $100
+30.6
Win Prob
71%
Edge
+20.6%
Size
2.0u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
70%
TOTAL over 11.0
78%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 17.7% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +175.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
29.6%
ML
238 / -238

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 143 / -174 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 150 / -164 -
Value Line - 145 / -182 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-210) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-100) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.5 (103)
Fair Value Fair Value 105 / -105 158 / -158 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Saturday that Wheeler (shoulder) will continue his rehab assignment Wednesday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and will make another minor-league start after that, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
O
Orion Kerkering
(RP) 15-day IL — Kerkering (hamstring) will make the second of back-to-back rehab appearances Wednesday at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Aidan Miller
(SS) day-to-day — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Miller (back) has increased his rehab activities but is not yet swinging a bat, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out

Colorado Rockies

C
Charlie Condon
(OF) day-to-day — The Rockies reassigned Condon to minor-league camp Thursday.
Day-To-Day
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 15-day IL — Quintana came away with the no-decision in the Rockies' 4-3 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. He allowed two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out two across 4.1 innings.
15-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-210)
Total Over 11.5
Key Injuries
Zack Wheeler 15-Day-IL
Orion Kerkering 15-Day-IL
Charlie Condon Day-To-Day
McCade Brown 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies

+30.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 74% High Edge
"Coors total massacre: omega 24.0 vs 11.0 market + Phillies +30.6% spread EV on sharp RLM"
71% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 71%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +20.6%
Line Movement
Current PHI -175 / COL +144 (Total 11.0)
Movement RLM detected on spread favoring Phillies
Coors Field altitude +35% scoring bias PHI aces vs COL injuries (Quintana IL, multiple DTD)
+30.6% EV on Phillies spread at +155 (Bovada) vs Pinnacle fair value; ML breakeven 63.6% met with 70.6% model prob
Model: 52.0% win rate | n=248 — MLB totals profitable in lean tier; avoid 55-62; favor ML where profitable
FULL ANALYSIS
Coors Field total 11 crushed by omega 24.0 projection (12-12 scores) +35% park over bias; Phillies spread +155 at Bovada offers 30.6% EV vs Pinnacle fair with sharp RLM confirmation. Sanchez (0.79 ERA) exploits COL injuries (Quintana IL) while Freeland vulnerable. H2H over hit 4/3; model vs COL 6-7 but high-edge tier calibrated.
SHARP MONEY
17.7% sharp edge on spread + RLM detected = strong syndicate signal on Phillies
Recommended Sizing
2.0u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -175
+30.6 EV 74% 2.0u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+8.4 EV 70% 1.5u
TOTAL over 11.0
+12.1 EV 78% 2.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Colorado Rockies 193
  • Omega ML +238 vs market +193 (our 65% prob beats 34.1% implied); sharp 1.9% edge but weak signal
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.5 gives Rockies +1.5 a 3pt edge in Coors where 65% of games stay within 1 run
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.5 (15.5pt edge); Coors +35% scoring bias, recent H2H over hit
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies ML +193 (omega +238, 5.8 EV) + Coors over 8.5 (15.5pt model edge despite total tier fade)
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