AFC Bournemouth at Newcastle United

EPL April 18, 2026 02:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Newcastle United

-0.5

Home field edge in EPL (1.02x win prob boost) with calibrated at 52% vs 50% implied

Ω Bottom Line

Newcastle home edge +100 ML (52% model vs 50% implied, +4 EV) in data-poor spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Newcastle United

Line: -0.5

57%

Home field edge in EPL (1.02x win prob boost) with calibrated at 52% vs 50% implied

MONEYLINE

Newcastle United

59%

+100 ML offers breakeven 50% but model at 52% with home split advantage

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

54%

Cool 52F + 11mph wind biases under in EPL; totals historically losing (reduce conf by 5)

Game Analysis

Newcastle's 12-6-14 record edges Bournemouth's 10-15-7; EPL home win rate ~45% supports -0.5/-100 value. No models but stable line and records give slim 3% prob edge. Poor data caps at LEAN tier; totals faded per 48.7% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bruno Guimarães Newcastle United

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Midfielder avg 0.3 goals; low scoring projection

PROP ALERT

Alexander Isak Newcastle United

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Team leader in goals; home matchup usage

PROP ALERT

Anthony Gordon Newcastle United

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High volume winger; model projection

PROP ALERT

Joelinton Newcastle United

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Consistent shooter in midfield

PROP ALERT

Kieran Trippier Newcastle United

Under 0.5 assists 55%

RB low assist volume

PROP ALERT

Valentino Livramento Newcastle United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Defender limited shots

PROP ALERT

Sven Botman Newcastle United

Under 0.5 goals 59%

CB rare scorer

PROP ALERT

Junior Kroupi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 goals 57%

10 goals in 27 but away vs strong home D

PROP ALERT

Marcos Senesi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 assists 58%

CB low assists (4 in 31 matches)

PROP ALERT

Dominic Solanke AFC Bournemouth

Over 0.5 goals 59%

Primary striker projection

PROP ALERT

Antoine Semenyo AFC Bournemouth

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Winger volume shooter

PROP ALERT

Lewis Cook AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

DM low volume

PROP ALERT

Illia Zabarnyi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 goals 60%

CB no goals expected

PROP ALERT

Ryan Christie AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Mid low creators

PROP ALERT

Dango Ouattara AFC Bournemouth

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Winger pace threat

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