Alavés at Elche
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Alavés
0.5
calibrated 56.5% for Alavés +0.5 cover matches devigged market prob
Ω Bottom Line
Bayesian edge 0% on Alavés +0.5 (56.5% posterior); pass low-info spot with vig EV -8%
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior shows zero edge (44.4% Elche win prob matches market); Alavés -225 ML requires 69% breakeven vs our 56% (PASS juiced fav). Model 3-1 historical vs Elche provides slight underdog value at +125 ML/-0.5 +115. Poor data (23% quality) caps at Lean tier; no injuries/rest/weather edges.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
André Silva
Elche
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Season 10 goals in 27 matches (0.37 avg); model projects 0.3 in neutral matchup (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Rafa Mir
Elche
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Limited usage projected vs Alavés defense (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Toni Martínez
Elche
Under 0.5 goals
57%
11 goals in 33 matches avg 0.33; low projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Carles Aleñá
Elche
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Midfield role limits SOT (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Álvaro Rodríguez
Elche
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Assist specialist, low shots (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Aleix Febas
Elche
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Model projects sub-0.5 SOT (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Iñaki Peña
Elche
Under 2.5 saves
54%
Low shots expected in even matchup (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Antonio Sivera
Elche
Over 3.0 saves
53%
Alavés attack projects avg shots (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Toni Martínez
Alavés
Under 0.5 goals
58%
33 matches 11 goals avg 0.33; under projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Carles Aleñá
Alavés
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Secondary role vs Elche (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Antonio Sivera
Alavés
Over 2.5 saves
57%
Elche projects 3-4 shots on target (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Álvaro Rodríguez
Alavés
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Limited role projected (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Rafa Mir
Alavés
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Matchup limits opportunities (model-generated)