Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL May 05, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Anaheim Ducks

1.5

Market Consensus fair value 62.5% Ducks cover +1.5 vs the public line implied 37.6% (+24.9pp edge)

Ω Bottom Line

Ducks +1.5 +140 offers +25 EV vs Pinnacle 62.5% fair cover (DK shades home to 37.6%)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Anaheim Ducks

Line: 1.5

62%

Market Consensus fair value 62.5% Ducks cover +1.5 vs the public line implied 37.6% (+24.9pp edge)

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

57%

Sharp total under 5.0% edge + RLM; Market Consensus fair 52.2% under

Game Analysis

Ducks hampered by Gudas out + two DTD (-12.6% lambda), boosting VGK edge but market prices at exact 62.4% posterior. Weak sharp/+EV on Ducks +1.5 (63.6% fair cover) offers marginal value amid stable lines. Degraded data caps conviction; no MC/posteriors for spread/total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 points 62%

Model proj 1.0 pts; high usage vs weakened Ducks D (Gudas out)

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 assists 60%

90 season assists leader; Ducks injuries boost PP time

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model proj 0.3; low volume scorer in defensive spot

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Consistent shooter; Ducks D injuries increase chances

PROP ALERT

Mark Stone Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 points 60%

Captain reliable producer home vs injured opponent

PROP ALERT

Adin Hill Vegas Golden Knights

Over 26.5 saves 61%

Expected low-scoring; Ducks avg 28 shots allowed to goalies

PROP ALERT

William Karlsson Vegas Golden Knights

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Model proj 0.4; secondary role in matchup

PROP ALERT

Alex Pietrangelo Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 58%

PP1 D-man; Ducks injuries open ice

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 59%

Rookie leader 41 pts; usage up with injuries

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 60%

High volume; VGK allows 2.8/game to wings

PROP ALERT

Jackson LaCombe Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Model proj 0.3; limited role D vs VGK offense

PROP ALERT

Frank Vatrano Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Struggles vs VGK; model 0.3 proj

PROP ALERT

Trevor Zegras Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 60%

Playmaker; elevated usage w/ Harkins DTD

PROP ALERT

John Gibson Anaheim Ducks

Over 28.5 saves 62%

VGK high shots; low total favors volume

PROP ALERT

Leo Carlsson Anaheim Ducks

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 57%

Rising shot volume vs VGK D

PROP ALERT

Alex Killorn Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model proj 0.4; depth role limited

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail