Arsenal at West Ham United

EPL May 10, 2026 03:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

70% Strong

SPREAD

Arsenal

-0.5

calibrated 80% Arsenal win exceeds spread implied 64.9%; historical 3-0 vs Arsenal

Ω Bottom Line

Arsenal ML -165: 80% posterior vs 62% implied (+28.5 EV), Kalshi 82.5% confirms vs juiced line

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Arsenal

Line: -0.5

70%

calibrated 80% Arsenal win exceeds spread implied 64.9%; historical 3-0 vs Arsenal

MONEYLINE

Arsenal

74%

Posterior 80% away win vs de-vig market 80% (vigged 62.3%); exceeds breakeven 62.3% by 17.7%

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

57%

Market Consensus fair 51% over aligns with Arsenal attack vs West Ham; totals neutral market

Game Analysis

Arsenal's fused posterior pegs 80% win prob well above -165 vigged implied 62% (+28.5 EV), confirmed by Kalshi 82.5% and Pinnacle fair 70.5%. No situational edges or injuries, but cross-market ML/spread unity on away side. Poor data (39% quality) reduces conf 6pts from posterior; totals weak historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bukayo Saka Arsenal

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection 2.1 SOT; high-usage winger vs West Ham (season avg 1.8)

PROP ALERT

Bukayo Saka Arsenal

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.6 goals; favorable matchup for star winger

PROP ALERT

Leandro Trossard Arsenal

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Model projection 0.4 assists; secondary creator usage boost

PROP ALERT

David Raya Arsenal

Under 2.5 saves 59%

Model projection 1.8 saves; Arsenal clean sheet potential vs weak West Ham attack

PROP ALERT

Martin Odegaard Arsenal

Over 0.5 assists 57%

Model projection 0.6 assists; playmaker in dominant matchup

PROP ALERT

Gabriel Martinelli Arsenal

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection 1.4 SOT; speed vs West Ham backline

PROP ALERT

Kai Havertz Arsenal

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Model projection 0.3 goals; rotated usage

PROP ALERT

Declan Rice Arsenal

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Model projection 0.1 assists; defensive mid role

PROP ALERT

Jarrod Bowen West Ham United

Under 0.5 goals 65%

Season 8 goals/35 matches (0.23 avg); Arsenal elite defense projects 0.2

PROP ALERT

Jarrod Bowen West Ham United

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection 1.3 SOT; main threat volume

PROP ALERT

Jarrod Bowen West Ham United

Under 0.5 assists 62%

Season 10 assists/35 but low vs Arsenal quality

PROP ALERT

Alphonse Areola West Ham United

Over 4.0 saves 61%

Model projection 4.5 saves; Arsenal high shot volume expected

PROP ALERT

Mohammed Kudus West Ham United

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection 1.0 SOT; secondary attacker

PROP ALERT

Lucas Paqueta West Ham United

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Model projection 0.2 assists; limited creativity vs Arsenal press

PROP ALERT

Edson Alvarez West Ham United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection 0.3 SOT; DM low volume

PROP ALERT

Aaron Cresswell West Ham United

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model projection 0.1 assists; defensive role

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