AS Roma at Internazionale
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Internazionale
-0.5
Inter 22-3-5 home dominance vs Roma 17-3-10 overall with weak away splits
Ω Bottom Line
Inter 22-3-5 San Siro fortress vs Roma road struggles, model 67% > -165 breakeven (+4.8 EV ML)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Internazionale
Line: -0.5
Inter 22-3-5 home dominance vs Roma 17-3-10 overall with weak away splits
MONEYLINE
Internazionale
Our 67% prob exceeds -165 breakeven 62.3% by 4.7%; Inter unbeaten in 25 home matches
Game Analysis
Inter's Lautaro (14G/25) and Dimarco (14A/28) outpace Roma's Malen (7G/10)/Soule (4A/25); model 65% Inter win vs 61.5% implied at -160. Low 2.5 total fits Serie A 2.4 gpg avg, Inter 40% home CS rate. Props capped at 60 given unvalidated 2025-26 rosters.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Lautaro Martínez
Internazionale
Over 0.5 goals
60%
14 goals in 25 matches vs Roma defense; model projection 0.7 goals
PROP ALERT
Federico Dimarco
Internazionale
Over 0.5 assists
58%
14 assists in 28 matches; high volume from LB position
PROP ALERT
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Internazionale
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Midfield creator averages 1.8 SOT; Roma mid weak
PROP ALERT
Marcus Thuram
Internazionale
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
59%
High volume forward; projects 1.3 vs Roma
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Barella
Internazionale
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Box-to-box mid; consistent long shots
PROP ALERT
Davide Frattesi
Internazionale
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Sub usage; low volume profile
PROP ALERT
Denzel Dumfries
Internazionale
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Wingback focuses on crosses over shots
PROP ALERT
Donyell Malen
AS Roma
Under 0.5 goals
59%
7 goals in 10 but Inter elite defense caps at 0.4 projection
PROP ALERT
Paulo Dybala
AS Roma
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
60%
Injury history limits volume; Inter suppresses chances
PROP ALERT
Lorenzo Pellegrini
AS Roma
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Captain but contained by Inter midfield
PROP ALERT
Artem Dovbyk
AS Roma
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
59%
Roma striker faces Sommer/Inter backline suppression