Atalanta at AS Roma

Serie A April 18, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

AS Roma

-0.5

Model assigns 45% prob to Roma covering -0.5 vs 43.5% implied at +130, +3.3% edge from whale home consensus

Ω Bottom Line

Roma ML +140: 45% model prob vs 41.7% breakeven (+3.3% edge) backed by home whales

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

AS Roma

Line: -0.5

58%

Model assigns 45% prob to Roma covering -0.5 vs 43.5% implied at +130, +3.3% edge from whale home consensus

MONEYLINE

AS Roma

60%

45% our prob exceeds 41.7% breakeven at +140 by 3.3%; minor whale signal on home (100% conf, $3.9K vol)

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Soccer totals historically under bias at 2.5 line; no pace data but calibration shows losing totals across tiers

Game Analysis

Roma -0.5 at +125 offers 17 EV with our 52% prob vs market 44% implied, backed by minor whale ($3,912 home). Atalanta strong but home edge + Serie A draw regression favors Roma win/draw no bet value. Under 2.5 at standard line aligns with 2.3 projected goals, totals weak historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.3 goals vs line; low usage forward in tough Roma matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Nikola Krstovic Atalanta

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Projection 1.1 SOT; Roma defense limits chances (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ademola Lookman Atalanta

Over 0.5 goals 60%

High-usage winger projects 0.6 goals; key Atalanta threat (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Gianluca Scamacca Atalanta

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Striker avg projects over 1.0 SOT line (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Teun Koopmeiners Atalanta

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Midfielder low volume projects under (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen AS Roma

Over 0.5 goals 60%

10 goals in 12 matches avg; projects over vs Atalanta (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Matias Soule AS Roma

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Creative player projects 1.2 SOT (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Paulo Dybala AS Roma

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Injury history limits to 0.4 proj (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Pellegrini AS Roma

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Captain projects over low line (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Artem Dovbyk AS Roma

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Secondary striker low proj (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Bryan Cristante AS Roma

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Def mid low volume (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Charles De Ketelaere Atalanta

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Projects under vs Roma D (model-generated)

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