Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky

WNBA April 29, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Chicago Sky

-2.5

model simulation (10k runs) projects Chicago covers -2.5 in 59.6% of outcomes (margin +6.0pts).

Ω Bottom Line

Chicago -2.5 (MC 59.6% cover, +6pt margin) edges omega line despite dual -25% injuries

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Chicago Sky

Line: -2.5

60%

model simulation (10k runs) projects Chicago covers -2.5 in 59.6% of outcomes (margin +6.0pts).

MONEYLINE

Chicago Sky

58%

Blended prob 57% home win exceeds -112 breakeven (52.8%) by 4.2pp; MC home win 65.3%.

TOTAL

over

Line: 179.0

55%

model sims project over 179 in 57.0% despite equal -25% injury hits both sides.

Game Analysis

Sky's -24.1% injury hit (Vandersloot OUT, Carrington OUT) > Dream's -20.7% (Jones OUT); net 3.4% away edge projects Atlanta -2.5, 79-82 score. No models/odds force conservative leans. Spreads in lean tier hit 57.1% historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Kamilla Cardoso Chicago Sky

Over 9.5 rebounds 62%

Rookie center sees usage boost with Williams/Stevens out; model projects 10.2 reb vs depleted Atlanta frontcourt.

PROP ALERT

Rickea Jackson Chicago Sky

Over 15.5 points 60%

High-usage wing; injury cascade increases touches in equal-injury matchup.

PROP ALERT

Skylar Diggins Chicago Sky

Over 6.5 assists 64%

Elite PG playmaker; model projects 7.1 ast with Vandersloot out.

PROP ALERT

Rachel Banham Chicago Sky

Over 1.5 three_pointers 58%

Volume shooter off bench; pace favors 2.1 makes.

PROP ALERT

Hailey Van Lith Chicago Sky

Over 10.5 points 57%

Guard rotation player; projects 11.8 pts in expanded role.

PROP ALERT

Aicha Coulibaly Chicago Sky

Over 8.5 points 55%

Athletic wing; model 9.2 pts vs injury-hit Atlanta.

PROP ALERT

Jacy Sheldon Chicago Sky

Over 3.5 assists 59%

Secondary ballhandler; projects 4.0 ast.

PROP ALERT

Jordan Hobbs Chicago Sky

Over 4.5 rebounds 56%

Forward depth; 5.1 reb projection.

PROP ALERT

Rhyne Howard Atlanta Dream

Over 21.5 points 65%

Star wing highest usage; projects 23.4 pts with multiple guards out.

PROP ALERT

Allisha Gray Atlanta Dream

Over 13.5 points 62%

Scoring guard; 14.8 pts model projection.

PROP ALERT

Jordin Canada Atlanta Dream

Over 4.5 assists 60%

Lead PG with Cazorla out; 5.3 ast expected.

PROP ALERT

Sika Kone Atlanta Dream

Over 7.5 rebounds 58%

Center steps up with Jones/Hillmon out; 8.2 reb proj.

PROP ALERT

Laila Phelia Atlanta Dream

Over 11.5 points 57%

Wing contributor; 12.1 pts model.

PROP ALERT

Te-Hina Paopao Atlanta Dream

Over 1.5 three_pointers 55%

Shooter; projects 1.9 makes.

PROP ALERT

Isobel Borlase Atlanta Dream

Over 5.5 points 56%

Bench spark; 6.3 pts expected.

PROP ALERT

Bella Fontleroy Atlanta Dream

Over 2.5 assists 55%

Guard depth; 3.0 ast proj.

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