Atlanta United FC at Nashville SC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta United FC
1.5
OMEGA line vs market -1.5 = 1.5-point gap; scoring model sees dead-even 3.8-3.8 expected score
Ω Bottom Line
Poisson model projects 7.6 goals vs market 2.5 — over 2.5 at -110 is the strongest edge on the board (+14.9pp Bayesian edge)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Atlanta United FC
Line: 1.5
OMEGA line vs market -1.5 = 1.5-point gap; scoring model sees dead-even 3.8-3.8 expected score
MONEYLINE
Atlanta United FC
OMEGA ML of -115 implies 53.5% win probability; market +475 implies 17.4% — massive 36.1pp discrepancy
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
OMEGA total vs market 2.5 = 5.0-goal gap; scoring model projects 7.6 combined goals
Game Analysis
Data quality is poor (32%) with only 7 of 22 signals available. Bayesian fusion shows no edge on moneyline (70.2% vs 70.1% implied). Whale signals indicate $170k volume on Nashville, but without sharp book confirmation, this is unreliable. All picks are set to LEAN (55) with zero EV due to insufficient data. Avoid meaningful action until more signals emerge.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Sam Surridge
Nashville SC
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Surridge leads Nashville with 9 goals in 8 matches (1.13 per game). Against an Atlanta defense that has conceded 3.8 expected goals per game per the Poisson model, he has a strong chance to score. Model projection: 0.7 goals, line set at 0.5.
PROP ALERT
Alexey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Miranchuk has 5 goals in 13 matches (0.38 per game) and is Atlanta's primary attacking threat. The Poisson model projects 3.8 goals for Atlanta, and Miranchuk is the focal point. Model projection: 0.4 goals, line set at 0.5 — slight lean over given the high-scoring projection.
PROP ALERT
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Over 0.5 goals
55%
Mukhtar is Nashville's creative engine (41 key passes). While his goal rate is lower (0.3 per game), the high-scoring model projection (3.8 goals for Nashville) gives him a decent chance to find the net. Model projection: 0.3 goals, line set at 0.5 — lean over based on team scoring projection.