Atlanta United FC at New England Revolution
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
New England Revolution
0.5
OMEGA independent line (0.0) suggests market -0.5 is too aggressive; calibrated spread posterior shows 52.3% cover probability for away side at +0.5
Ω Bottom Line
Over 2.5 is the play — OMEGA projects 7.5 goals vs market 2.5, Bayesian edge +14.9pp, take before books adjust
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
New England Revolution
calibrated posterior (53.8%) exceeds market prior (50.0%) by +3.8pp, creating +7.6 EV at +100 odds
SPREAD
New England Revolution
Line: 0.5
OMEGA independent line (0.0) suggests market -0.5 is too aggressive; calibrated spread posterior shows 52.3% cover probability for away side at +0.5
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
calibrated total posterior shows 64.9% over probability vs market 50.0% — a massive +14.9pp edge. OMEGA independent total (7.5) vs market (2.5) is a 5.0-point discrepancy, suggesting the market has this total far too low.
Game Analysis
The market has this total at 2.5, but OMEGA's Poisson model projects 7.5 goals — a 5.0-point discrepancy that screams value on the over. Bayesian fusion confirms with a +14.9pp edge on over 2.5. The moneyline is a lean at best: New England at +100 with a 53.8% posterior gives +7.6 EV, but model agreement is very low and data quality is degraded. The whale signal ($17K on away side) is a weak confirm. Take the over as the primary play; the ML is a small-unit flier.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Carles Gil
New England Revolution
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Gil has 5 goals in 15 matches (0.33 per game). At -110 juice, breakeven is 52.4%. Model projects 35% chance of scoring — below breakeven. PASS.
PROP ALERT
Alexey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Miranchuk has 5 goals in 15 matches (0.33 per game). At -110 juice, breakeven is 52.4%. Model projects 35% chance of scoring — below breakeven. PASS.