Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

This game is a data-quality minefield — no pitcher data, no weather, no sharp book lines. The Bayesian model gives a thin +1.0pp edge to the Orioles, but whale signals ($110K, 77% on Angels) create real contrarian tension. Monte Carlo sims show under 22.5 at 69.8%, which is the strongest single signal in the dataset. With both teams missing key bats (Trout, Soler, Noel) and no starter announced, the under is the most defensible play despite the model's historical weakness on totals. The Angels ML at +196 offers +8.2 EV if the whale money is informed, but that's a big if without Pinnacle confirmation. Lean Angels spread and under, but keep units tiny — this is a 52% confidence game at best.