Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins

MLB May 05, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

1.5

OMEGA spread pick'em vs market MIA -1.5, model margin +0.0 std 4.6 implies 70%+ BAL +1.5 cover

Ω Bottom Line

Omega 22.5 total vs 8.5 market (+15pp over edge), whales $1.8M extreme on MIA ML

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

Line: 1.5

58%

OMEGA spread pick'em vs market MIA -1.5, model margin +0.0 std 4.6 implies 70%+ BAL +1.5 cover

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

63%

calibrated 65.2% over vs 50% implied, omega/MC project 19.2-22.5 total vs market 8.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior 52.5% Marlins win vs omega 39.2% implied ML creates +13% edge, confirmed by extreme $1.14M whales (90% home) and Kalshi 52.5%. MC sims show 76% under 22.5 total (9.5-9.8 projected) with HIGH confidence despite VERY_LOW model agreement. Equal -11% injuries both sides, no situational edges; lean low conf on data limits.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection .338 BA in high total spot, pace favors hits (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

29 RBI leader in projected 22-run game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

2.68 ERA + 40 K leader, favorable matchup projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

Recent form supports K upside in high total (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

7 HR pace regresses in model sims (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Otto Lopez Miami Marlins

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

.338 BA projects multi-base game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Meyer Miami Marlins

Under 5.5 strikeouts 54%

Variance in high total environment (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 home_runs 57%

9 HR leader thrives in 22-total projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.0 hits 56%

.288 BA solid in model pace (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

24 RBI regresses vs model pitching (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Shane Baz Baltimore Orioles

Under 4.5 strikeouts 58%

4.99 ERA limits Ks in sims (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Power bat in high-scoring MC (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Consistent contact vs Marlins (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Under 0.5 hits 54%

Struggles in projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Shane Baz Baltimore Orioles

Over 4.0 strikeouts 56%

Upside vs Marlins lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 hits 57%

RBI producer in total blowout (model-generated)

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