Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

MLB May 04, 2026 11:05 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

New York Yankees

-1.5

Sharp 16.7% edge home spread + +EV analysis shows +45.7% vs retail

Ω Bottom Line

Over 8.5 +20 EV (65% posterior, model 22 total); Yankees spread sharp 16.7% edge + whales $1.77M extreme

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Yankees

Line: -1.5

62%

Sharp 16.7% edge home spread + +EV analysis shows +45.7% vs retail

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp), omega/MC project 20-22 total vs 8.5

Game Analysis

Yankees -179 ML matches 64.2% posterior but zero edge at juice (breakeven exact, PASS). Sharp 15.2% divergence + extreme $491k whales (20 wallets, 80% conf) drive home spread value at -2.2 despite Pinnacle fair 43.4% home cover. Injuries net +1.9% home; total neutral under lean but historical totals 48.7% WR caps sizing.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 2.5 total_bases 60%

HR leader (13) projects 3.1 TB vs weak Orioles SP matchup, home split boost

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Season HR leader in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium projection

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.5 hits 57%

Team BA leader .343 avg projects over vs Orioles staff

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Team RBI leader (27 RBI) usage up with Stanton IL

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 7.5 strikeouts 62%

Team ERA leader 1.51 projects K-prone vs Orioles high-K lineup

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 6.5 strikeouts 60%

4 wins leader, solid K rate vs BAL offense

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 rbis 59%

Power bat cascades more RBI opp with injuries

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Hot bat .343 projects multi-base game

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 2.0 total_bases 60%

Team HR leader (9), strong road projection vs NYY pen

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Power threat in high-total spot projected over

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 hits 57%

Team BA leader .288 projects hit vs Yankees injuries

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.0 rbis 55%

Team RBI leader (24 RBI) lineup spot boost

PROP ALERT

Shane Baz Baltimore Orioles

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

SP projection over in projected high total game

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 hits 58%

Consistent contact vs NYY staff

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

BA leader projects extra bases

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 hits 55%

RBI producer projects at least 1 hit

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail