Bayer Leverkusen at VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga May 09, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

MONEYLINE

VfB Stuttgart

None

Model home win prob 46.5% exactly matches breakeven for +115 underdog ML.

Ω Bottom Line

Neutral EV=0: model aligns perfectly with devigged line, PASS on 24% data game

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses to 47.6% home win prob matching de-vigged market—no edge. Zero models/MC/injuries/sharps available slashes conviction; historical DDN 3-0 vs Stuttgart (small N<5). Soccer ML underdogs viable but +110 breakeven exact. Totals weak historically, lean under 3.5 on league 2.9 gpg avg.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Season 18 goals/27 matches=0.67 avg vs 0.5 line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Listed 114 shots stat supports 4+ SOG pace vs 1.5 line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jamie Leweling VfB Stuttgart

Under 0.5 assists 57%

8 assists/30 matches=0.27 avg below 0.5 line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart

Over 2.5 saves 56%

GK vs Leverkusen attack projects 3+ saves vs 2.5 line (model)

PROP ALERT

Angelo Stiller VfB Stuttgart

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfield volume projects 1 SOG vs 0.5 (model)

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 59%

Adjusted for matchup under 2.5 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jamie Leweling VfB Stuttgart

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Usage projects over 1.0 (model)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart

Under 3.5 saves 56%

Leverkusen attack but under 3.5 proj (model)

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Over 0.5 goals 60%

16 goals/26 matches=0.62 avg vs 0.5 line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Listed 68 shots supports over 1.5 SOT (model)

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Over 0.5 assists 57%

8 assists/27=0.30 but home usage boost (model)

PROP ALERT

Mark Flekken Bayer Leverkusen

Over 2.5 saves 56%

Stuttgart attack projects 3+ saves (model)

PROP ALERT

Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfield proj under 0.5 SOT (model)

PROP ALERT

Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 59%

Matchup adjust under 2.5 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Wingback volume over 1.0 (model)

PROP ALERT

Mark Flekken Bayer Leverkusen

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Away vs Stuttgart under 3.0 proj (model)

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