Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga May 03, 2026 03:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Borussia Dortmund

-0.5

calibrated 71.8% Dortmund cover -0.5 vs raw implied 53.5% (+18pp edge)

Ω Bottom Line

Dortmund 72% posterior vs -115 ML (+34 EV, 18pp edge over fair line); whales on Gladbach but model prevails

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Borussia Dortmund

Line: -0.5

65%

calibrated 71.8% Dortmund cover -0.5 vs raw implied 53.5% (+18pp edge)

MONEYLINE

Borussia Dortmund

72%

Posterior 71.8% win prob >> de-vigged market fair ~65%; breakeven 53.5% cleared by 18pp

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

55%

Bundesliga avg ~3 goals/game; Dortmund attack (Guirassy 0.5 gpg) pushes over low 2.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion pegs Dortmund 71.8% win prob matching de-vigged market but -115 offers value vs breakeven 53.5%; extreme whale volume on home ($430k) but zero profitable wallets ignores signal. Poor data caps conviction, Dortmund 3-0 model vs team. Bundesliga totals lean over 2.5 on ~3.1 gpg avg, reduced for no posterior.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 0.5 goals 58%

15 goals in 30 matches (0.5 gpg); favorable matchup vs Gladbach defense (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

75 shots in 30 (2.5/game); high usage striker (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Gregor Kobel Borussia Dortmund

Over 2.5 saves 60%

81 saves in ~30 games (2.7 avg); Gladbach shots force work (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low volume; 13 assists but shots limited (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 57%

Consistent volume in attack role (model adj for matchup)

PROP ALERT

Gregor Kobel Borussia Dortmund

Under 3.0 saves 59%

Dortmund favored, limits Gladbach chances (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Assists specialist, rare goals for defender (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Haris Tabakovic Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 goals 60%

11 goals in 30 (0.37 gpg); Dortmund GK Kobel strong (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Haris Tabakovic Borussia Mönchengladbach

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

62 shots in 30 (~2.1/game); volume despite low conversion (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Moritz Nicolas Borussia Mönchengladbach

Over 3.5 saves 59%

125 saves in 30 (~4.2 avg); Dortmund attack forces saves (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Franck Honorat Borussia Mönchengladbach

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Winger usage with 6 assists/25; shots volume (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Moritz Nicolas Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 4.0 saves 58%

Model expects Dortmund dominance limits shots (proj adj)

PROP ALERT

Haris Tabakovic Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 55%

Conversion issues cap volume vs strong defense (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Franck Honorat Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Assist-focused, low goals threat (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Nico Elvedi Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

CB minimal attacking props; high minutes defensive (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Nico Elvedi Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.0 goals 60%

Defender zero goal threat (model proj)

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