Borussia Dortmund at TSG Hoffenheim

Bundesliga April 18, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

Borussia Dortmund

None

calibrated implies 60% Dortmund win vs market 58.3% implied; exceeds breakeven by 2.7%

Ω Bottom Line

Dortmund ML -140: 61% model vs 58% implied (+3.2 EV); 3-0 historical vs Dortmund despite data void

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Borussia Dortmund

60%

calibrated implies 60% Dortmund win vs market 58.3% implied; exceeds breakeven by 2.7%

Game Analysis

Dortmund edges 61% win prob (Guirassy 0.46 GPG) vs 58% implied, spread +130 crushes ML -140 value. Model totals 2.8 goals under 3.5 amid no pace/injury data. Poor signals cap at lean tier despite DDN Dortmund success.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 10 goals/29 matches = 0.34 avg; Poisson under prob ~67%

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Low-volume finisher vs Dortmund defense; projected 1.1 SOT

PROP ALERT

Bazoumana Touré TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Season 8 assists/25 = 0.32 avg; low usage projection

PROP ALERT

Bazoumana Touré TSG Hoffenheim

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield role limits SOT; matchup vs Dortmund suppresses

PROP ALERT

Ihlas Bebou TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Secondary attacker; season trends under vs top teams

PROP ALERT

Ihlas Bebou TSG Hoffenheim

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Projected 1.2 SOT vs strong Dortmund backline

PROP ALERT

Anton Stach TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Defensive MF low assist volume historically

PROP ALERT

Pavel Kadeřábek TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 assists 55%

RB role limits chances created vs Dortmund

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 13/28 = 0.46 avg; Hoffenheim D ranks mid-table

PROP ALERT

Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

High-volume shooter; projected 1.7 SOT in favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 assists 58%

12 assists/26 but defender; low projection vs Hoffenheim

PROP ALERT

Julian Ryerson Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Defensive duties limit SOT opportunities

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Rotation risk; avg below line in similar spots

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen Borussia Dortmund

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Shares shots with Guirassy; projected 1.3

PROP ALERT

Julian Brandt Borussia Dortmund

Over 0.5 assists 60%

Creative AM; high assist rate vs mid defenses

PROP ALERT

Marcel Sabitzer Borussia Dortmund

Under 0.5 assists 55%

MF role but low volume expected

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail