Borussia Mönchengladbach at FC Augsburg

Bundesliga May 09, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

Borussia Mönchengladbach

None

50% calibrated away win prob vs 29.9% book implied on +235

Ω Bottom Line

Borussia Mönchengladbach +235 ML: 50% posterior vs 30% implied (+67.5 EV on vig inefficiency)

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Borussia Mönchengladbach

60%

50% calibrated away win prob vs 29.9% book implied on +235

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Bundesliga totals hit 47.4% in leans (losing); no xG/pace data supports conservative under

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51.2% ML (DNB implied) vs de-vig market match, but +220 book odds yield +63.8 EV/100 due to juice. Spread EV negative at -140 for +0.5 cover. No situational edges, injuries, or sharp signals; poor data caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Fabian Rieder FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 goals 58%

6 goals in 30 matches (0.20 avg) << line; model projection

PROP ALERT

Dimitris Giannoulis FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defensive role limits SOT volume; low-usage matchup projection

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Fringe scorer; avg below line in projections

PROP ALERT

Finn Dahmen FC Augsburg

Over 2.5 saves 60%

Standard Bundesliga GK workload ~3 saves; even matchup

PROP ALERT

Fabian Rieder FC Augsburg

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Low shot volume from MF position

PROP ALERT

Dimitris Giannoulis FC Augsburg

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Assist-focused, minimal goals

PROP ALERT

Finn Dahmen FC Augsburg

Under 3.0 saves 54%

Potential low-shot game projection

PROP ALERT

Alexis Claude-Maurice FC Augsburg

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Matchup-adjusted below line

PROP ALERT

Haris Tabakovic Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 goals 62%

12 goals in 31 (0.39 avg) under line; model projection

PROP ALERT

Franck Honorat Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Winger assist focus reduces SOT; away game adjustment

PROP ALERT

Haris Tabakovic Borussia Mönchengladbach

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

High-volume striker projection

PROP ALERT

Nico Elvedi Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

CB minimal attacking stats

PROP ALERT

Moritz Nicolas Borussia Mönchengladbach

Over 3.0 saves 58%

Away GK faces home shots; standard line

PROP ALERT

Franck Honorat Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 goals 56%

6 assists > goals; secondary scorer

PROP ALERT

Keven Schlotterbeck Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Defender low volume

PROP ALERT

Moritz Nicolas Borussia Mönchengladbach

Under 2.5 saves 55%

Tight game projection limits saves

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