Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
1.5
calibrated shows away cover 55.0% at -1.5, a +5.0pp edge over market implied 50%. Sharp money on home spread is contradicted by whale and prediction market signals.
Ω Bottom Line
Yankees ML at -140 shows +5.6% EV despite Judge's absence; Bayesian edge +3.3pp over market, but whale money on away limits conviction to 1u.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees
calibrated posterior 61.6% vs market 58.3% yields +3.3pp edge; sharp spread money confirms home side value.
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
Line: 1.5
calibrated shows away cover 55.0% at -1.5, a +5.0pp edge over market implied 50%. Sharp money on home spread is contradicted by whale and prediction market signals.
TOTAL
over
Line: 6.0
calibrated over 53.6% vs market 50% yields +3.6pp edge. OMEGA total suggests market total is too low given expected scoring environment.
Game Analysis
Yankees are missing Judge and Stanton, two of their most productive bats, while the Red Sox are relatively healthier. Whale signals show $60K in volume on the Red Sox, a strong contrarian indicator. The market prices Yankees at -142, but our model sees value on the Red Sox moneyline at +118. The total of 6.5 is low, but with key hitters out, under has a slight edge. Data quality is poor, so confidence is tempered.