Cagliari at Bologna

Serie A May 03, 2026 10:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Bologna

-0.5

calibrated fuses at 56.5% home cover probability matching market exactly

Ω Bottom Line

No edge on Bologna -0.5 (-130): posterior 56.5% = market implied, stable line but poor data caps at lean

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Bologna

Line: -0.5

55%

calibrated fuses at 56.5% home cover probability matching market exactly

MONEYLINE

Bologna

55%

Home ML posterior 56.5% aligns with -130 implied; DDN 2-1 vs Bologna

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior locks at 56.5% Bologna win/cover probability matching DraftKings -130/-0.5 exactly, no edge. Zero situational flags, injuries, or movement in poor data environment (24% signals). Leans historically hit 50.9% vs labeled 55-62%, calibration demands caution.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Riccardo Orsolini Bologna

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season 8 goals in 32 matches (0.25 avg); Cagliari defense solid, proj 0.25

PROP ALERT

Riccardo Orsolini Bologna

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

79 shots in 32 (2.47 total shots); proj 1.2 SOT vs Cagliari

PROP ALERT

Federico Ravaglia Bologna

Over 2.5 saves 56%

50 saves in 32 matches (1.56 avg); Cagliari attack low xG proj, usage boost

PROP ALERT

Sebastiano Esposito Bologna

Under 0.5 goals 55%

6 goals in 32 (0.19 avg); backup role proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Sebastiano Esposito Bologna

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

47 shots in 32; low usage proj 0.8 SOT

PROP ALERT

Jhon Lucumí Bologna

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Defender occasional SOT; Cagliari weak set pieces proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Riccardo Orsolini Bologna

Under 2.0 shots_on_target 56%

Home split lower volume proj 1.5

PROP ALERT

Federico Ravaglia Bologna

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Cagliari low shots proj fewer saves

PROP ALERT

Sebastiano Esposito Cagliari

Under 0.5 goals 58%

6 goals in 32 (0.19 avg); Bologna strong home D proj 0.15

PROP ALERT

Nicolò Cambiaghi Cagliari

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Limited data but low usage vs Bologna proj 0.7

PROP ALERT

Elia Caprile Cagliari

Over 3.5 saves 59%

110 saves assumed ~30G (3.7 avg); Bologna attack proj high shots

PROP ALERT

Sebastiano Esposito Cagliari

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Away split poor; proj 0.5 SOT

PROP ALERT

Yerry Mina Cagliari

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Defender rare SOT but corners proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Elia Caprile Cagliari

Under 4.0 saves 55%

Bologna efficiency limits shots proj 3.5

PROP ALERT

Nicolò Cambiaghi Cagliari

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Winger low goals; proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Sebastiano Esposito Cagliari

Over 0.0 goals 55%

Minimal but anytime proj slight

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