Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL May 13, 2026 04:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

3.5

+11.1% EV on Flyers +3.5 vs Market Consensus fair value (59.4% cover prob)

Ω Bottom Line

Flyers +3.5: +11.1% EV + sharp RLM (7.3%) + extreme whales ($120k) vs Canes -192 road fave

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Flyers

Line: 3.5

64%

+11.1% EV on Flyers +3.5 vs Market Consensus fair value (59.4% cover prob)

TOTAL

under

Line: 5.5

57%

Market Consensus fair under 54.6% vs -110

Game Analysis

Bayesian posteriors flag +4.7pp edge on Flyers +2 cover (54.6%) despite injuries, confirmed by +62.3% Pinnacle fair value home cover and strong whale volume home ($66k). Total over 5.5 screams value at 65.2% posterior with MC 12.9 pts and Omega 15.5 vs tiny market line. Sharp money leans Canes but whale/RLM divergence boosts dog; late market move caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Sebastian Aho Carolina Hurricanes

Over 0.5 points 58%

Model projection: high-usage center vs Flyers defense

PROP ALERT

Andrei Svechnikov Carolina Hurricanes

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection: low goal output in playoffs

PROP ALERT

Seth Jarvis Carolina Hurricanes

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection: consistent shooter matchup

PROP ALERT

Jaccob Slavin Carolina Hurricanes

Under 0.5 points 55%

Model projection: defensive focus low offense

PROP ALERT

Pyotr Kochetkov Carolina Hurricanes

Over 24.5 saves 59%

Model projection: Flyers shots ~27 in low total

PROP ALERT

Brent Burns Carolina Hurricanes

Under 0.5 points 56%

Model projection: age-adjusted lower production

PROP ALERT

Martin Necas Carolina Hurricanes

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection: matchup vs strong PK

PROP ALERT

Teuvo Teravainen Carolina Hurricanes

Over 0.5 points 55%

Model projection: secondary scoring role

PROP ALERT

Travis Konecny Philadelphia Flyers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection: high volume vs Canes

PROP ALERT

Joel Farabee Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 points 56%

Model projection: limited top-line role

PROP ALERT

Matvei Michkov Philadelphia Flyers

Over 0.5 points 59%

Model projection: rookie impact player usage

PROP ALERT

Tyson Foerster Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Model projection: secondary scorer drought

PROP ALERT

Samuel Ersson Philadelphia Flyers

Over 26.5 saves 60%

Model projection: Hurricanes shots ~29 in playoffs

PROP ALERT

Travis Sanheim Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 points 57%

Model projection: defensive D low points

PROP ALERT

Owen Tippett Philadelphia Flyers

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Model projection: sniper volume

PROP ALERT

Cam York Philadelphia Flyers

Under 0.5 points 55%

Model projection: rookie D limited offense

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