Celta Vigo at Atlético Madrid
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
MONEYLINE
Atlético Madrid
None
Posterior home win prob 46.5% matches +115 breakeven exactly vs overjuiced Celta -235.
Ω Bottom Line
Atlético +115 ML breakeven EV (46.5% posterior) vs juiced Celta -235 + Kalshi alignment
Game Analysis
Zero Bayesian edge (47.6% home posterior = market prior) yields neutral EV on Atleti +110 ML/home -0.5 +100. Kalshi 45.5% home aligns closely, no sharp/whale divergence. Poor data (27% signals) and losing totals history cap all to pass; props model-generated from season avgs.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Alexander Sørloth
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season avg 12 goals/31 matches (0.39); Atleti elite defense limits chances (model proj 0.3).
PROP ALERT
Alexander Sørloth
Celta Vigo
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
59 shots/31 (1.9 avg); reduced vs Oblak/Atleti backline.
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 goals
59%
13 goals/31 (0.42); low usage in tough matchup.
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
43 shots/31 (~1.4); Atleti suppresses shots.
PROP ALERT
Giuliano Simeone
Atlético Madrid
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Assists leader but low goals; Celta solid away.
PROP ALERT
Jan Oblak
Atlético Madrid
Over 3.0 saves
60%
64 saves leader; Celta generates ~3-4 SOG/game.
PROP ALERT
Marcos Alonso
Atlético Madrid
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Defender low volume; not attacking threat.
PROP ALERT
Andrei Radu
Atlético Madrid
Under 2.5 saves
55%
Backup GK if playing; lower minutes/SOG faced.
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Matchup adjustment vs top GK Oblak.
PROP ALERT
Giuliano Simeone
Atlético Madrid
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
59%
Celta away defense limits opportunities.