Celta Vigo at Valencia
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Celta Vigo
0.5
Model projects 1.2-1.1 scoreline edge for Celta despite market pricing Valencia -0.5
Ω Bottom Line
Celta Vigo +220 ML +5.8 EV (48% model vs 42.6% implied); Borja Iglesias firepower vs Valencia home woes
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Celta Vigo
Line: 0.5
Model projects 1.2-1.1 scoreline edge for Celta despite market pricing Valencia -0.5
MONEYLINE
Celta Vigo
Celta 48% win prob vs 42.6% implied at +220; better road record (10-11-8 overall)
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game; both mid-table defenses project 2.3 total
Game Analysis
Valencia +135 ML offers 4.8 EV with 62% model prob vs 43% implied; home pricing lags Iglesias/Duro scoring threats projecting 1.4-1.1 edge. Spread +120 inefficient extension of ML value. Under 2.5 lean at 58% but totals weak in calibration (losing 63-72 tier).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Over 0.5 goals
58%
11 goals in 26 matches vs Valencia mid defense; model proj 0.6
PROP ALERT
Hugo Duro
Valencia
Under 0.5 goals
60%
9 goals/28 matches in low-pace home games; Celta solid vs strikers
PROP ALERT
Luis Rioja
Valencia
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
5 assists/28 but low SOT volume vs Celta GK strength
PROP ALERT
Óscar Mingueza
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 assists
59%
4 assists/25 matches; secondary creator behind Iglesias
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
High volume striker projects 1.8 SOT vs Valencia
PROP ALERT
Hugo Duro
Valencia
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Home SOT avg dips vs road defenses like Celta
PROP ALERT
Óscar Mingueza
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Defensive RB low volume; focus on crosses not shots
PROP ALERT
Pepelu
Valencia
Under 0.5 assists
56%
Midfield distributor low assist rate in tight games
PROP ALERT
Javi Guerra
Valencia
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
Young MF limited chances vs Celta press
PROP ALERT
Williot Swedberg
Celta Vigo
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Rising winger volume uptick at Valencia