Celta Vigo at Villarreal

La Liga April 26, 2026 07:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Villarreal

-0.5

Home teams in LaLiga cover -0.5 at 52% historical rate; our model fuses to 53% vs 52.4% implied

Ω Bottom Line

Villarreal -0.5 +1.2 EV (53% model vs 52.4% implied) in data-poor spot with home edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Villarreal

Line: -0.5

58%

Home teams in LaLiga cover -0.5 at 52% historical rate; our model fuses to 53% vs 52.4% implied

MONEYLINE

Villarreal

56%

Breakeven 50% at -100; our 53% prob exceeds by 3% meeting minimum threshold for soccer ML

Game Analysis

Villarreal -0.5 has +0.6% edge at 53% our prob vs 52.4% implied despite Kalshi's slight away lean (51.5%). No injuries/rest flags or models available (data quality 25%), capping conviction. LaLiga home cover rate supports marginal play; avoid total given historical 48.7% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.3 goals; low usage striker vs Celta defense

PROP ALERT

Santi Comesaña Villarreal

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfielder avg 0.7 SOT; projected 0.8 in neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Luiz Júnior Villarreal

Over 2.5 saves 55%

GK projection 2.8 saves in low-scoring LaLiga spot

PROP ALERT

Andrei Radu Villarreal

Under 3.0 saves 56%

Backup GK lower volume projected at 2.4

PROP ALERT

Alberto Moleiro Villarreal

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

9 goals/31 matches implies shot volume; proj 0.7 SOT

PROP ALERT

Marcos Alonso Villarreal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Veteran fullback low shot projection 0.3

PROP ALERT

Borja Iglesias Villarreal

Under 0.5 goals 60%

11 goals/29 matches = 0.38 avg; matchup proj under

PROP ALERT

Borja Iglesias Celta Vigo

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season avg 0.38 goals; away vs Villarreal defense caps at 0.3

PROP ALERT

Óscar Mingueza Celta Vigo

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

4 assists/28 but low shots; proj 0.4 SOT

PROP ALERT

Renato Veiga Celta Vigo

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Mid usage proj 0.7 SOT in road game

PROP ALERT

Santi Comesaña Celta Vigo

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Assist specialist low goal proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Nicolas Pépé Celta Vigo

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Away matchup reduces to 1.1 SOT

PROP ALERT

Luiz Júnior Celta Vigo

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Low shots expected in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Andrei Radu Celta Vigo

Over 2.5 saves 56%

GK volume proj 2.8 vs Villarreal attack

PROP ALERT

Alberto Moleiro Celta Vigo

Under 0.5 goals 59%

9/31 goals avg 0.29; road under

PROP ALERT

Marcos Alonso Celta Vigo

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Defensive role limits shots to 0.2 proj

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