Chelsea at Brighton & Hove Albion
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Brighton & Hove Albion
-0.5
46% cover probability exceeds +130 breakeven of 43.5% by 2.5%; spread equivalent to ML with pricing edge
Ω Bottom Line
Brighton +145 home ML: 46% model prob vs 40.8% implied (+12.7 EV on underdog pricing)
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Brighton & Hove Albion
Model projects 46% home win probability vs 40.8% book implied on +145 ML (+5.2% edge after vig)
SPREAD
Brighton & Hove Albion
Line: -0.5
46% cover probability exceeds +130 breakeven of 43.5% by 2.5%; spread equivalent to ML with pricing edge
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Model under probability 54% vs 52.4% breakeven at -110; EPL defensive averages support low-scoring affair
Game Analysis
Chelsea's established EPL quality (Palmer/Jackson core) undervalued vs Brighton's mid-table form per leaders. +12% prob edge on ML, +7% on +0.5 cover despite juice. Under 2.5 from 2.4 projected goals, no pace boost.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Danny Welbeck
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Season 12 goals/32 matches (0.375 gpg); model projects 0.6 vs Chelsea matchup with home usage boost
PROP ALERT
Danny Welbeck
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Model projection 1.9 SOT; striker role in home game vs Chelsea defense
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 0.5 goals
57%
14 goals/32 matches (0.44 gpg); primary scorer projection 0.65 in favorable spot
PROP ALERT
João Pedro
Brighton & Hove Albion
Under 0.5 assists
55%
5 assists/32 (0.16 apg); model sees low assist volume vs Chelsea
PROP ALERT
Yankuba Minteh
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 0.5 assists
55%
4 assists/29 matches; wing usage projects 0.4 in home attack
PROP ALERT
Yankuba Minteh
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Model projects 1.3 SOT; speed threat vs Chelsea fullbacks
PROP ALERT
Bart Verbruggen
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 2.5 saves
59%
Home GK vs Chelsea attack projects 3.2 saves; standard EPL volume
PROP ALERT
Kaoru Mitoma
Brighton & Hove Albion
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
55%
Core winger; model 1.7 SOT projection in home fixture
PROP ALERT
Robert Sánchez
Chelsea
Over 2.5 saves
58%
86 saves metric implies ~3 spg; projects 3.1 away vs Brighton
PROP ALERT
Nicolas Jackson
Chelsea
Over 0.5 goals
56%
Primary striker; model projects 0.55 goals away spot
PROP ALERT
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
Over 2.0 shots_on_target
59%
High-usage AM; projects 2.4 SOT vs Brighton defense
PROP ALERT
Enzo Fernández
Chelsea
Under 0.5 assists
55%
Midfield role low assist volume away; projects 0.3
PROP ALERT
Noni Madueke
Chelsea
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Wing rotation; model 1.4 SOT in matchup
PROP ALERT
Pedro Neto
Chelsea
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
55%
Away suppression vs Brighton; projects 1.2
PROP ALERT
Trevoh Chalobah
Chelsea
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Defender minimal goal threat; model projects 0.1 max