Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
Ω
DDN SI PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Knicks
-11.5
OMEGA scoring model+team strength line of -20 (124.5-104.3 expected) sits 8.5 points beyond the -11.5 market spread, and the 1-6 Bulls (1-4 road) face a Knicks team winning despite Josh Hart out
Ω Bottom Line
Knicks -11.5 vs an OMEGA -20 line with Bulls at 1-6 and Claxton out — 0.5u display lean, EV +4.0
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
New York Knicks
Line: -11.5
OMEGA scoring model+team strength line of -20 (124.5-104.3 expected) sits 8.5 points beyond the -11.5 market spread, and the 1-6 Bulls (1-4 road) face a Knicks team winning despite Josh Hart out
TOTAL
under
Line: 233.5
OMEGA total and decomposed-ratings 231.8 both sit below the 233.5 quote, with NegBin expected scores (126.1+105.7=231.8) confirming a 1.7-5.0 point overhang; totals confidence reduced 5 for weakest-market history
Game Analysis
OMEGA's scoring model+NegBin stack projects a ~20-point Knicks margin (124.5-104.3 / 126.1-105.7) while the public line posts just -11.5, an 8.5-point gap we can't fully explain — even accounting for Josh Hart's absence and light early-season samples (only 7 games in). We anchor on the home spread -11.5 at LEAN tier rather than juicing confidence, and take the under 233.5 since both the independent total (228.5) and decomposed projection (231.8) sit below market. No sharp-money confirmation exists in the supplied data, which caps everything at display-grade confidence.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks
Over 30.5 points
62%
Top-usage Knicks guard faces a 1-6 Bulls defense ranked bottom-third without interior anchor (Claxton out)
PROP ALERT
OG Anunoby
New York Knicks
Over 19.5 points
58%
Hart's absence shifts secondary creation to Anunoby at both forward slots
PROP ALERT
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls
Over 18.5 points
56%
Primary Bulls ball-handler in a positive game script (trash-time scoring risk-adjusted to modest over)
PROP ALERT
Mikal Bridges
New York Knicks
Over 16.5 points
55%
Thin evidence — moderate projection, usage split three ways caps upside