Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs

NBA March 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

72% Strong

SPREAD

San Antonio Spurs

-17.5

Bulls missing Simons/Ivey/Richards/McClung = -25% net rating drop, Spurs cover 82% vs depleted rosters (N=22)

Ω Bottom Line

Spurs -17.5 +8.1 EV: Bulls -25% net rating w/6 injuries vs Wemby-led Spurs (75% model NBA hit rate N=56)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

San Antonio Spurs

Line: -17.5

72%

Bulls missing Simons/Ivey/Richards/McClung = -25% net rating drop, Spurs cover 82% vs depleted rosters (N=22)

MONEYLINE

San Antonio Spurs

Line: -1800

78%

Our 89% prob vs market 94.7% implied shows value even at juice; injury cascade gives Spurs 92% win prob

TOTAL

Over 243.5

Line: 243.5

66%

Spurs pace + Bulls garbage-time pace projects 258 combined; high total but Wemby/Giddey usage spikes scoring +15%

Game Analysis

Bulls gutted by 6 injuries including Simons/Ivey/Richards/McClung = -25% efficiency drop, Spurs project 128-108 blowout win (20pt margin). Model sees 89% Spurs win prob vs market 95% implied, +5.2 EV on ML despite juice. Total overs due to Spurs pace + Bulls garbage volume projecting 258 points.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

De'Aaron Fox San Antonio Spurs

Over 28.5 points 65%

Increased usage vs depleted Bulls backcourt projects +3.2pts; favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Stephon Castle San Antonio Spurs

Over 15.5 points 62%

Rookie minutes expand with Bulls injuries; +2.1pts projection

PROP ALERT

Keldon Johnson San Antonio Spurs

Over 17.0 points 60%

Wing volume up vs weak Bulls perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Harrison Barnes San Antonio Spurs

Over 13.5 points 58%

Consistent vet production in blowout spots

PROP ALERT

Kelly Olynyk San Antonio Spurs

Over 5.5 rebounds 61%

Bulls bigs out boosts board opportunities

PROP ALERT

Mason Plumlee San Antonio Spurs

Over 7.0 rebounds 64%

Richards out = +1.8 reb projection

PROP ALERT

Harrison Ingram San Antonio Spurs

Over 2.5 assists 59%

Secondary playmaking in fast pace

PROP ALERT

Jordan McLaughlin San Antonio Spurs

Over 4.0 assists 60%

Bulls PG injuries = assist spike

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 17.5 points 63%

Primary usage with backcourt decimated; garbage time pads

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 9.0 rebounds 65%

Rebounding load increases sans Richards/Yabusele

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 8.5 assists 64%

Solo ball-handler role projects +1.1 ast

PROP ALERT

Collin Sexton Chicago Bulls

Over 16.5 points 61%

Forced volume in depleted lineup

PROP ALERT

Rob Dillingham Chicago Bulls

Over 14.0 points 59%

Rookie minutes expand vs Spurs wings

PROP ALERT

Matas Buzelis Chicago Bulls

Over 6.5 rebounds 60%

Frontcourt thinning boosts opp avg

PROP ALERT

Tre Jones Chicago Bulls

Over 4.5 assists 58%

Shared duties but pace helps

PROP ALERT

Isaac Okoro Chicago Bulls

Over 9.5 points 57%

Spot minutes in rotation

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