Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves

MLB May 13, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Atlanta Braves

1.5

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market Cubs -1.5 (edge on home +1.5); model margin -0.0 with high variance favors +1.5 cover

Ω Bottom Line

Braves ML +6.3pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales ($678k home) vs Acuna-less lineup; Over 8.5 +15pp (MC 20 runs)

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Atlanta Braves

55%

calibrated posterior 52% home win vs market 45.7% (+6.3pp edge) with model consensus 57.7%

SPREAD

Atlanta Braves

Line: 1.5

62%

Omega independent spread 0.0 vs market Cubs -1.5 (edge on home +1.5); model margin -0.0 with high variance favors +1.5 cover

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

65%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total, expected 11.2-11.2, model 10-10=20

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion shows dead-even 54.8% home ML prob matching -121 implied, but $511k EXTREME whales (61% Cubs) + Kalshi 51% home create sharp divergence for Cubs +3. Low-ERA duel (Elder 1.81 ERA, Imanaga 2.28) vs 1.5 total screams over value. Equal injuries net zero; poor data caps conf at Lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Michael Harris II Atlanta Braves

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.311 BA projects over vs avg Cubs staff; high-scoring game boosts opportunities

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

37 RBI pace in model high-output game; cleanup spot usage

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

14 HR pace but regression vs Cubs arms in projected spot

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

56 K pace, elite K-rate projects over in high total

PROP ALERT

Bryce Elder Atlanta Braves

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

1.81 ERA supports K projection vs Cubs order

PROP ALERT

Michael Harris II Atlanta Braves

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Model high pace game boosts multi-hit potential

PROP ALERT

Nico Hoerner Chicago Cubs

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.273 BA leadoff projection in favorable scoring spot

PROP ALERT

Ian Happ Chicago Cubs

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

9 HR pace regresses under in Truist matchup

PROP ALERT

Shota Imanaga Chicago Cubs

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

2.28 ERA, strong K prop vs Braves bats sans Acuna

PROP ALERT

Nico Hoerner Chicago Cubs

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

28 RBI pace supports in high total environment

PROP ALERT

Ian Happ Chicago Cubs

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Power spot usage boost from injuries

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Under 7.5 strikeouts 54%

Cubs contact hitters cap upside

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

HR threat in projected 20+ run game

PROP ALERT

Shota Imanaga Chicago Cubs

Under 6.5 strikeouts 55%

Braves recent form EWMA 5.2 limits K's

PROP ALERT

Bryce Elder Atlanta Braves

Over 3.5 strikeouts 56%

Low ERA correlates to spot K's vs Cubs

PROP ALERT

Nico Hoerner Chicago Cubs

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Consistent contact hitter minimum

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